Bumpy northward expansion reflects multiple conflicts in NATO

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Li Weichao
Time
2023-02-28 17:28:54

By Li Jiabao

According to a recent report from Swedish media, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson revealed that negotiations between Sweden, Finland and Türkiye on joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will resume in March.

NATO's northward expansion has experienced frequent twists and turns since May 2022, with unceasing political games between all parties. Experts pointed out that Finland and Sweden – two Nordic countries with long standing neutral and military non-alignment policies, have embarked on the path of joining NATO is one of the important geopolitical changes in Europe after the escalation of the Ukrainian crisis. However, the "Turkish dilemma" faced by NATO in the "northward expansion" just reflects the multiple conflicts between Türkiye and Sweden, Finland, as well as those within NATO, laying hidden dangers for the future of NATO.

Intertwined conflicts

"There are at least two pairs of contradiction in terms of NATO's northward expansion." said Zhao Ke, an associate professor at the Institute of International Strategy of the Party School of the Central Committee of CPC, in an interview with our reporter. First, Türkiye has inherent differences with Sweden and Finland in fighting against "terrorist organizations"; second, Türkiye and the US have had ups and downs in their relationship. In addition, Türkiye has been in a passive position for a long time on the issue of joining the European Union, and there are also conflicts between Türkiye and European members of NATO. "With many conflicts intertwined, Türkiye, as a NATO member, is eager to take Sweden and Finland's accession to NATO as an opportunity to gain more initiative in the game against the US and Europe."

Liu Zuokui, deputy director and researcher of the Institute of European Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, analyzed the situation in an interview with our reporter, saying that Türkiye has adopted a pragmatic foreign policy, intending to gain its own interests by virtue of its veto on "NATO’s expansion" while forcing other countries to make concessions. Türkiye also wants to take the opportunity to show the current government's strong diplomatic image before this year's general election to win public support. This has delivered an impact on the relationship between Türkiye and the US and other NATO allies, negatively affecting the strategic mutual trust inside NATO. Against the backdrop of the continuing Russia-Ukraine conflict and NATO's strong attempt to "revive", what Türkiye has done is obviously not something desirable to the US and other western countries.

Leaders of NATO countries including US Vice President Kamala Harris and German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, have recently expressed their views in succession that there should be no further delay, calling on Türkiye to approve Finland and Sweden's accession to NATO.

Trigger  for conflict

As pointed out by Zhao Ke, the differences and internal contradiction between the NATO members have been intensifying with the growing scale of NATO. There are great differences among Nordic countries, Western European countries and Central and Eastern European countries in terms of political concepts, security concepts and social systems. Therefore, NATO's "northward expansion" can only be realized with compromise from all parties. In the long run, this has also been a trigger to future conflict. In the future, NATO's collective action and organizational efficiency will be greatly hampered.

Liu Zuokui believes that the impacts of NATO's "northward expansion" are multifaceted. The European security structure is likely to change further, and it will be even more difficult for Russia to secure its security space, which will in turn aggravate the security dilemma facing Europe.

Editor's note: Originally published on paper.people.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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