By Xiang Haoyu
From March 16 to 17, President Yoon Suk-yeol of the Republic of Korea (ROK) led a delegation to visit Japan, marking the first official visit of a ROK president to Japan after 11 years and 3 months since the last time. During the visit, Yoon Suk-yeol and his entourage interacted with representatives from all walks of life in Japan in a high-profile manner, highlighting the achievements of improving ROK-Japan relations. However, this "ice-breaking trip" attained by the concessions on historical issues by the ROK side, not only leaves serious hidden dangers for the ROK-Japan relations but also is likely to bring new risks to regional peace and stability.
From the perspective of results, President Yoon Suk-yeol's visit has improved bilateral relations in three aspects. First, the political atmosphere tends to turn around. The ROK and Japanese leaders have announced the resumption of the shuttle diplomacy of regular leader visits. Second, economic and trade frictions will be eased. Japan has announced to lift the strict export controls on semiconductor materials to the ROK, and the ROK to withdraw its lawsuit filed with the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Japan’s export curb; Besides, Japan and the ROK are also preparing to establish an "economic security dialogue" mechanism to jointly strengthen the supply chain of important strategic materials such as semiconductors. Third, they are to resume security cooperation. The two sides have agreed to restart the Japan-ROK security talks, as a way to strengthen the US, Japan and ROK missile intelligence-sharing pact, and restore the General Security of Military Information Agreement.
However, it should also be noted that President Yoon Suk-yeol's visit does not mean a comprehensive solution to the conflicts between Japan and the ROK. This interaction between Japan and the ROK only signifies peacemaking between the right-wing conservative forces of the two countries, and the ROK-Japan relations can merely get temporary and partial mitigation, far from reconciliation. In particular, Yoon’s government has compromised on some historical issues related to Japan in an effort to strengthen military cooperation, which has laid multiple hidden dangers for the future development of bilateral relations and the regional situation.
First of all, the concessions by the ROK side to Japan have left a "curse" behind. The crux of the ROK-Japan feud over the past few years has been the case of forced labor recruitment. Before his visit to Japan, Yoon's government proposed a plan to pay the "forced laborers from World War II" by a local foundation rather than Japanese firms, triggering strong opposition in the ROK. Opposition parties and many people criticized this move as "traitorous and humiliating diplomacy," and the victims also refused to accept it. The ROK public is not willing to accept the results brought by Yoon's visit to Japan. The Hankyoreh sharply criticized that the Japanese side is completely lack of sincerity, and the visit is a crushing defeat for the Yoon’s government in diplomacy.
Secondly, security cooperation between the US, Japan, and ROK has intensified bloc confrontation. The US has played a major role in pushing forward the easing of the Japan-ROK relations from behind. The strategic intention of the US is to strengthen the frontier military deployment in Northeast Asia by strengthening the trilateral military cooperation between the US, Japan, and the ROK , with a view to suppressing the DPRK and containing China and Russia. The hegemony of the US in Northeast Asia can thereby be reshaped. As the US, Japan, and the ROK have kept strengthening trilateral anti-missile cooperation and promoting extended deterrence negotiations, it may also further stimulate Pyongyang’s determination to possess nuclear weapons for self-protection, exacerbating tensions on the Peninsula. On a larger scale, it may further divide the region, impacting the strategic stability and regional integration process in the Asia Pacific region.
Finally, the ROK's diplomatic imbalance has backfired on its strategic space. Since taking office, Yoon's government has focused on strengthening the ROK-US alliance and proactively improving the ROK-Japan relationship, while persistently highlighting a posture of confrontation and containment towards China and Russia, losing its balance in diplomacy with China, the US, Russia and Japan. The Yoon’s government has declared its aim to turn the ROK into a "country of global hub". As a country caught between great powers, the ROK can maximize its own interests only by balancing its relations with neighboring countries. However, completely standing by the US and Japan on foreign policies as adopted by Yoon's government will only seriously restrict the wiggle room of the ROK's diplomacy, and is not in line with the ROK's long-term national interests.
The improvement of Japan-ROK relations and even genuine reconciliation should be based on Japan's profound reflection on the history of aggression and proper handling of historical issues, instead of at the expense of harming the interests of third parties or undermining regional peace and stability. Regarding the radical improvement of relations with Japan, Yoon's government may need to listen to the public opinion at home and the voices of neighboring countries.
(The author is a distinguished researcher of the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies at the China Institute of International Studies)
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
