By Wen Weiru
The picture shows a concept design of the next-generation fighter jet for Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), which is jointly launched by Japan, the UK and Italy.
According to foreign media reports, Shigenori Mishima, chief defense scientist at the Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) under Japan's Ministry of Defense, said recently that Japan is planning to substantially increase investment in military R&D, and will invest in a number of cutting-edge technology projects in the future. At the same time, a large part of Japan's defense expenditure will be used for foreign military purchases, mainly from the US to purchase medium-range cruise missiles, F-35 fighters and other weapons and equipment. So, how will Japan allocate its investment resources? Will it pay more attention to independent R&D in the field of weapons technology, or to the procurement of weapons?
Japan focuses on advancing disruptive technologies and makes preparations for the development of next-generation cutting-edge weapons.
At the end of 2022, Japan revised and updated three documents on national security, which essentially scrapped Japan's 1% GDP defense spending cap. Subsequently, Japan sharply raised its total defense budget to around 43 trillion yen (about 327.9 billion US dollars) from 2023 to 2027. As the first year of this five-year defense expenditure increase plan, Japan's defense expenditure increased by 26% year-on-year in 2023.
According to the website of National Defense Magazine, a considerable part of the newly increased expenses will be invested in military science and technology R&D. Japan's Ministry of Defense will be nearly doubling its R&D expenditures in 2023, and over the next five years, Japan will boost military R&D funding by four-and-a-half times current levels, which would total 26 billion US dollars. Key projects include anti-ship missiles for island defense, upgraded Type 12 surface-to-ship missiles (SSM) and hypersonic weapons. The development of a sixth-generation fighter is also included.
It is not hard to find that Japan's independent R&D focuses on the development of future conceptual weapons with lengthy research processes and defining characteristics of emerging technology. Its purpose is to keep up with the development rhythm of advanced military technology and master the core technology of the next-generation cutting-edge weapons independently. Specifically, in terms of medium and long-range missile R&D, while it intends to buy Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US, Japan is also working to make progress in the R&D project of Type 12 SSM to increase the missile range from 200 km to 1,000 km and modify it for the sea-based launch platform, in a bid to carry out technical verification for the development of a real Japanese cruise missile in the future.
Hypersonic weapons are another focus of Japan's R&D investment. In July 2022, the successful combustion test of a hypersonic scramjet engine independently developed by Japan signaled a major step toward Japan's R&D of hypersonic missiles. Focusing on the R&D of "hypervelocity gliding projectile," Japan plans to mount fledgling types of weapons in 2026 to make a start in the process of making advanced weapons from scratch. In 2028, the country plans to mount a version of the missile with upgraded performance, equipped with warheads designed with more advanced waveriders, which can conduct variable trajectory maneuvers.
The two high- and one magnetic weapons, namely, high-power microwave weapons, high-performance laser weapons, and electromagnetic weapons, are regarded by Japan as the war game-changer and are the focus of its long-term R&D efforts. In recent years, Japan has kept increasing its input, with an aspiration that it can move forward by leaps and bounds in military science and technology after a technological breakthrough is made.
In terms of the R&D of the next-generation fighter jet, Japan scrapped the funds for the development of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries' experimental fifth-generation fighter technology demonstrator X-2 “Shinshin”, which has been promoted for 10 years, and instead joined hands with European countries to develop the sixth-generation fighter jet. It is reported that Japan, the UK, and Italy will launch a joint development plan for the next-generation fighter, dubbed the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP), according to the investment ratio of 4: 4: 2. Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, the UK's BAE Systems, and Italy's Leonardo will jointly launch the project in 2025, and the R&D plan is expected to be completed by 2035.
Pursuing the rapid formation of strike capabilities, Japan moves forward by buying more US-made weapons.
While actively strengthening independent R&D capabilities, Japan is signing increasingly more deals for weapons and equipment year after year, intending to quickly acquire offensive combat capability by purchasing advanced weapons. Generally speaking, most of Japan's procurement expenditure flows to the US, mainly concentrated in the fifth-generation main fighters, medium-range missile defense systems, high-performance large unmanned aerial vehicles, and other fields. To materialize these purchasing contracts, Japan needs to carry out lots of coordination based on military alliance and pay high premium funds.
In terms of fighters, according to the signed order contract, Japan will equip 147 F-35A and F-35B fighters, and build the second-largest F-35 fighter group in the world after the US. At present, the US has delivered 15 F-35 fighter jets to Japan, and the overall progress is relatively slow. Moreover, the repair and maintenance costs of the F-35 continue to rise. According to Japan's assessment, the spare parts supply, maintenance, upgrading, and optimization of F-35 are all borne by the US, and the repair and maintenance cost of a single F-35 that Japan has to pay to the US is as high as US$7.8 million.
In terms of missiles, Japan is actively striving to purchase 400 to 500 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. It is reported that the Japanese government will formally sign a contract with the US on procurement in 2023, and the total procurement expenditure of 211.3 billion yen has been reflected in the defense expenditure in 2023. Tomahawk cruise missiles have a range of 400 to 2,500 kilometers and can be deployed on land-borne, surface ships, and submarines, which will help Japan improve its long-range strike capability.
In terms of large UAVs, Japan ordered three Global Hawk UAVs [Block 30(I) model)] from the US as early as 2015 to form an unmanned reconnaissance air force. So far, Japan has paid 61.3 billion yen in procurement costs and set aside 263.7 billion yen for future repairs and maintenance costs to the US. Recently, the US military plans to phase out the Block 30(I) model purchased by Japan due to the performance defects of Global Hawk UAVs. On March 6, 2023, Japanese opposition lawmaker Kiyomi Tsujimoto questioned in Congress that the Kishida government spent a lot of money purchasing backward weapons from the US, which was a serious waste of defense budget, triggering a public debate in Japan: In purchasing US weapons, which aspect does the Japanese government pay more attention to, political or military? Does the government really intend to purchase weapons, or does it only pay protection fees to the US in the name of purchasing weapons?
Japan seems to adopt a strategy of combining long-term deployment and short-term improvement by planning independent R&D and meanwhile, pursuing direct procurement to rapidly improve combat capability. However, the ever-expanding arms procurement from the US has gradually led to eroding determination of the Japanese defense and military industries to develop cutting-edge weapons technology, and even fall into a negative cycle of path dependence. Therefore, its ambitious R&D plan is likely to get into trouble again. Active and passive weapons procurement with unclear intentions firmly ties Japan to the chariot of the US, making it difficult to change its fate as a pawn of the US.
