By Li Xuehua

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson (right) meet on the eve of the NATO summit.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg recently announced significant progress in Sweden's accession to NATO, according to foreign media reports. "Glad to announce that after the meeting I hosted with Erdogan and Kristersson, Erdogan has agreed to forward Sweden's accession protocol to the Grand National Assembly ASAP and ensure ratification," wrote Stoltenberg in a tweet after a meeting in Vilnius.

A joint statement by leaders from NATO,  Türkiye and Sweden confirmed this. The statement said that Sweden and Türkiye agreed to continue cooperation under the trilateral permanent joint mechanism and a new bilateral security agreement. Sweden will present a roadmap to continue the fight against terrorism in all its forms and will continue bilateral counterterrorism cooperation with Türkiye after joining NATO, and strengthen economic cooperation between the two countries.

There are reports that US President Joe Biden had a phone conversation with Erdogan the day before Erdogan agreed to back Sweden's accession to NATO. According to a statement released by the White House, Biden expressed his hope for Sweden to join NATO as soon as possible. In a subsequent media interview, Biden expressed optimism about Sweden's accession to NATO.

Some analysts believe that Erdogan's change in attitude may be aimed at easing tensions with the US and the EU and avoiding isolation at the upcoming NATO summit. Some media also claimed that  Türkiye's decision to agree to Sweden's accession to NATO is the result of the US' consent to include Türkiye in the F-35 fighter jet program. At the same time, Türkiye hopes to purchase new F-16 fighter jets from the US to accelerate the modernization of its air force fleet. It is reported that the White House has convinced US Congress to approve military sales to Türkiye, and it is possible that this is the reason why Erdogan made concessions on Sweden's accession to NATO.

Although Erdogan's attitude has changed, analysts point out that Sweden's accession to NATO still faces several challenges.

On the one hand, Sweden must make efforts to push the Turkish Grand National Assembly to approve the protocol on Sweden's accession to NATO as soon as possible. Although Erdogan has promised to submit the protocol for parliamentary approval, no timetable has been given. Stoltenberg does not seem to have certainty about this and said that it is up to Türkiye.

On the other hand, Sweden must try to meet Erdogan's demand, which is  Türkiye's accession to the EU. Before expressing the intention to submit the accession protocol to the Turkish Grand National Assembly, Erdogan said that Sweden can only join NATO after Türkiye is accepted into the EU.

Additionally, according to the procedures, NATO can only admit new members with the "unanimous agreement" of all member countries. Even if the Turkish Grand National Assembly eventually approves the accession protocol for Sweden, Sweden still needs the approval of another NATO member state, Hungary.