By Shu Meng
On October 7, the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the Gaza Strip, a Palestinian territory, launched an attack on Israel and advanced from land, sea, and air towards the Israel-controlled areas along the Gaza border. This new round of conflict between Israel and Palestine has already resulted in over 1,100 casualties on both sides, with thousands of people injured.
From the immediate causes of this conflict, the deteriorating external environment for Palestine appears to be the main catalyst that prompted Hamas to launch an attack. In the surrounding regions of Palestine, the expansion of Israeli settlements has increased significantly under the right-wing coalition government, leading to a surge in violent incidents in the West Bank. In early July, Israel launched a large-scale military operation in the Jenin area of the West Bank, resulting in significant casualties among Palestinians and fueling resistance and resentment among them. In the Middle East, a trend of reconciliation has quietly emerged, with Israel's relations with Arab nations gradually improving. This shift has led to reduced Arab focus on the Palestinian issue. Recently, Saudi Arabia and Israel have been engaging in increasing diplomatic interactions, hinting at a warming of relations and the possibility of a peace agreement. This suggests that Saudi Arabia may no longer insist on the "first Israeli-Palestinian, then Israeli-Arab" order of negotiations, and it could encourage more regional countries to improve their relations with Israel, which would further complicate the situation for Palestine.
In this situation, the Israeli-Palestinian situation is on the brink of escalation, with a growing likelihood of both sides becoming increasingly embroiled in conflict.
Within Palestine, with the failure of the Oslo Accords, the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (Fatah), which originally advocated negotiation with Israel, has found the path of reconciliation and compromise with Israel increasingly untenable. In the future, more Palestinian organizations and individuals may choose to pursue their rights through resistance and struggle. The increasing presence of these resistance groups and individuals will, on one hand, impact Hamas's leadership position within the resistance camp, forcing Hamas to adopt more effective means of resistance to maintain its influence. On the other hand, it will further undermine Fatah's governance in the West Bank region of Palestine, affecting the stability of the security situation in the West Bank. These two factors will collectively contribute to further fragmentation of Palestinian efforts against Israel.
Within Israel, this conflict has shattered Israel's long-standing self-assured defensive mindset and is likely to have a significant impact on the political reputation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu has long been known as "Mr. Security" and has made national security his political hallmark. After suffering severe attacks in this conflict, Israel's long-constructed strategic deterrence has been seriously weakened. Therefore, the Netanyahu government is likely to respond to Hamas's attacks with a more hardline approach. This is aimed at regaining political reputation and governing legitimacy domestically, while externally showcasing Israel's unwavering commitment to national security.
Internally, within the Middle East, the recent resurgence of tensions between Israel and Palestine has not only disrupted the momentum of regional reconciliation but has also firmly entrenched the sidelined Israel-Palestine issue in the normalization processes between Arab nations and Israel. Arab countries currently find it challenging to set aside the Israel-Palestine issue to advance their relations with Israel fully. To address this challenge, regional states may intensify their efforts at mediation and work on improving the regional environment. However, given the lack of traction in peace talks and the increasing fragmentation of Palestinian internal factions, the demands on mediators to resolve the Israel-Palestine issue are growing.
In conclusion, the Israel-Palestine situation is escalating, moving beyond the framework of small-scale conflicts, and potentially heading towards large-scale confrontations. In the absence of a robust mediator, the tension between Israel and Palestine may continue to spiral upward, with increased frequency, intensity, and dispersion of conflicts. The root cause of this conflict still lies in the long-stalled Middle East peace process and the delayed implementation of the "two-state solution." If this issue cannot be resolved comprehensively, justly, and sustainably through negotiations, the prospects for peace and reconciliation in the Middle East may remain elusive.
(The author is from the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
