By Xie Yanbing and Li Chun
The 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum was opened on October 30 with a new topic of "nuclear risks and global security" included in the agenda. Emerging technologies have increasingly intensified the nuclear risks, but the probability of nuclear warfare is minimal, experts said during the forum.
The escalating geopolitical conflicts today have impacted global strategic balance and stability. Lora L Saalman, a non-resident senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden, said in an interview with the media during the forum that, on the one hand, cyber-attacks by non-state actors on satellite and missile-related infrastructure are getting more prevalent nowadays, and on the other hand, the continuous evolution of emerging nuclear technologies and potential risks around human control capabilities result in heightened global nuclear risks.
Eduardo Antonio Diez, Director of the International Relations Department of the University of Belgrano in Argentina, agreed that nuclear risks not only denote nuclear war and nuclear proliferation, but also include the possible impacts of artificial intelligence on nuclear security. Application of artificial intelligence in nuclear weapons could lead to catastrophic consequences. And he further pointed out that the potential for achievements of non-nuclear states is finite, if major countries do not engage in the multilateral arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament processes.
Other factors, including the US-UK-Australia nuclear submarine cooperation, are also disrupting the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo, a research fellow with the Chinese PLA Academy of Military Sciences, indicated that nuclear weapons have great destructive power. Still, the current nuclear non-proliferation mechanism is waning in effectiveness. "This is what we are worried about, and if this goes on, the whole of humanity will suffer," he said.
The Ukraine crisis continues to persist, and the potential use of nuclear weapons by Russia also raises international attention. Retired Lt. Gen. Evgeny Buzhinskiy, Chairman of PIR Center, commented that nuclear risks are getting more intricate in the context of deteriorating relations between Russia and the West. He said that the nuclear policies of Russia are based on the concept that a nuclear war is both unwinnable and unacceptable, as any country caught in a nuclear war would be devastated in the end. Russia will only turn to nuclear weapons in the event of facing an attack by weapons of mass destruction (WMD), or if conventional weapon attacks threaten the survival of the nation.
"Nuclear weapons have always been more about deterrence. Some countries' conduct of nuclear tests or withdrawal from the CTBT has incurred nuclear risks to some extent, but the probability of a nuclear war breaking out is highly remote," Saalman added.
