On August 18, 2023, US President Biden holds talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol at Camp David, Maryland. (Photo fromphoto.thepaper.cn)
Amidst the ongoing Palestinian-Israeli conflict and the unresolved Russia-Ukraine standoff, the Asia-Pacific region continues to maintain overall peace. However, potential uncertainties are looming, and the shifting balance in the relationships among major powers such as China, the US, and Russia is affecting the situation in Northeast Asia. The security architecture of the region is undergoing changes.
During the Cold War era, Northeast Asia witnessed a triangular confrontation between China, the Soviet Union, and the DPRK on one side, and the US, Japan, and the ROK on the other. Currently, the US is promoting the concept of collective security and deepening the "Southern Triangle" mechanism with Japan and the ROK. Bilateral relations between China, the DPRK, and Russia are advancing, although all three countries have expressed a clear non-alignment stance. Scholars from China, the US, Japan, and the ROK all agree that the formation of blocs has not yet occurred in Northeast Asia. However, they also acknowledge the very real risk of returning to the Cold War era.
The US, Japan and the ROK are heading toward a trilateral alliance?
In October, the US, Japan, and the ROK conducted two joint military exercises. From October 9 to 10, they held maritime interception and anti-piracy exercises in the southeastern waters of the Sea of Japan near Jeju Island. On October 22, the three countries conducted their first joint aerial exercise near the Korean Peninsula.
This indicates that the US-Japan-ROK security cooperation is transitioning from rhetoric to concrete actions. During the Camp David Summit held in August, the three countries agreed to establish an annual trilateral multi-domain exercise mechanism, to initiate data sharing and real-time missile warning data exchange mechanisms targeting DPRK missile launches, and set up a trilateral working group was formed to coordinate responses to DPRK's overseas financial and cyber activities.
"Tripartite security cooperation among the US, Japan, and the ROK has elevated to a new level, and the emergence of an 'Asian version of NATO' poses a new challenge within the Asia-Pacific security landscape," stated Jiang Xinfeng, a researcher at the Academy of Military Science of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). There is currently a trend toward military integration among them. It is hard to tell whether they will establish a trilateral military alliance, but the trend toward strengthened military cooperation is evident.
Hwang Jae-ho, Director of the Global Security Cooperation Center in the ROK, pointed out, "Under the framework of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, the proactive response from the Yoon Suk-yeol's administration reflects the direction of ROK's national security strategy." However, Hwang emphasized that the trilateral military cooperation is not all-encompassing, and Seoul will make selective choices.
Masuda Masayuki, Head of the Asia & Africa Division, National Institute for Defense Studies, expressed that the US-Japan-ROK cooperation in terms of security will continue to deepen. However, he emphasized that this cooperation is on a significantly different level compared to a military alliance. He also stressed the importance for Japan and the US to have dialogue with China to prevent misjudgments that could lead to division in Northeast Asia.
Proximity between DPRK and Russia sparks speculation
On July 25, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu led a delegation to visit DPRK, where he was received by DPRK's leader Kim Jong-un. The two sides engaged in friendly talks, pledging to strengthen bilateral relations. Two months later, on September 13, Kim Jong-un, the General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of the DPRK, held a "historic" meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far East. During the meeting, the two leaders discussed several crucial issues, including closer coordination and mutual support in responding to military threats, leading to agreements and consensus between the two nations.
Regarding the interactions between the leaders of DPRK and Russia, ROK President Yoon Suk-yeol pointed out that the military cooperation between the DPRK and Russia violates United Nations Security Council resolutions and various international sanctions, deeming it illegal and unjust.
Hwang Jae-ho expressed his hope that the DPRK will refrain from further military actions. Otherwise, he warned that the conservative government in the ROK might take measures under pressure, potentially exacerbating the security situation in the region.
In fact, the defense cooperation among the US, Japan, and ROK continues to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. According to reports, in a speech at the end of August, Kim Jong-un stated, "Due to the reckless confrontational activities of hostile forces like the US, the waters around the Korean Peninsula have become the largest gathering area of war machines and the most unstable waters facing risk of nuclear warfare in the world."
Escalating arms race in Northeast Asia
In recent years, military exercises in Northeast Asia have become increasingly frequent. In October, the US nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan docked in ROK's Busan, participating in joint maritime interception and anti-piracy exercises with Japan and the ROK. Simultaneously, Japan and the ROK have intensified their interactions with NATO, and Japan has adjusted its defense policies and significantly increased military expenditure, which has raised concerns about the regional situation.
In September of this year, the ROK military announced the establishment of a Drone Combat Command, marking the formation of its first joint operational force, comprising the army, navy, air force, and marine corps.
Furthermore, during the military parade commemorating the 70th anniversary of the victory in the Korean War in July, the DPRK publicly revealed two newly developed drones, marking their first public demonstration of these unmanned aerial vehicles.
On the other hand, Japan has significantly increased its military spending and emphasized the concept of so-called counterstrike capabilities in its revised national security strategy. The Japanese government plans to construct more ammunition depots within the Self-Defense Forces facilities starting from the fiscal year 2024, specifically for storing long-range missiles. Additionally, on October 4, the US and Japanese defense ministers reached an agreement to deliver Tomahawk cruise missiles to Japan in 2025, a year ahead of the schedule.
Jiang Xinfeng asserts that Japan is undeniably on a path of military expansion and preparedness. For Japan, the question arises about whether it will continue on the path of peaceful development. Furthermore, these actions might trigger a chain reaction, leading to an arms race in the region.
No matter how the situation in Northeast Asia evolves, the regional countries are neighbors who cannot be moved away. Faced with an increasingly interconnected world full of serious challenges, peace and development are common goals, as indicated by the theme of the 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, "Common Security, Lasting Peace."
Editor's note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
