By Li Chao
EU countries have continued to assist Ukraine and have provided more than 80 billion euros in aid to Ukraine after the crisis in Ukraine broke out. As the crisis continues to drag on, many countries have gradually shown weakness in aiding Ukraine due to lack of financial resources. At present, Slovakia, Hungary and other countries have publicly opposed further aid to Ukraine. In contrast, Germany has recently delivered a large amount of military equipment to Ukraine and announced that it will double the original funding for military aid to Ukraine in 2024 to 8 billion euros.
Due to historical reasons including the World War II, Germany has been cautious in related military operations. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Germany was criticized by its allies for its delay in aiding Ukraine. Its decision to provide tanks and other heavy equipment to Ukraine was made under continued pressure from countries like the US and Poland. This time, Germany took a proactive stance in assisting Ukraine, attracting attentions within the international community.
The change in Germany's attitude towards assisting Ukraine was not a sudden turn. Over the past two years of prolonged Ukraine crisis, Germany has increasingly sensed the change of the era and heightened its awareness of the "threat of war." Public perception regarding the support for Ukraine has steadily intensified, laying the groundwork for the gradual escalation of aid to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Germany has long been dependent on the US for security, and in the face of the immediate "threat of hot war," its autonomy was further limited and the US influence on Germany's foreign policy kept increasing. In the current three-party coalition government of Germany, the Green Party, which controls important departments such as the Federal Foreign Office and the Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, has a prominent pro-US and anti-Russia stance. As a result, it internally drives the German government to closely align with US foreign policy. Despite not entirely sharing the same goals with the US on the Russia-Ukraine issue, Germany has still cooperated with the US in general. One important manifestation of this cooperation is Germany's increased financial and military contributions in the security area.
The continued assistance to Ukraine not only demonstrates a shared political will with the US but also reflects the its comprehensive national strength, especially economic power. During the European debt crisis, Germany played a crucial role as the main contributor, helping the EU overcome the crisis. In the past two years, the economic pressures on the EU have continued to mount, and while Germany faces various challenges in its own economic development, its foundation is still stronger than that of other EU countries. Currently, Germany still has the confidence and capacity to provide assistance to Ukraine.
At a time when the US and some European countries considered withdrawal, Germany's high-profile announcement of increased aid to Ukraine is, in fact, a move that achieves multiple objectives. First, against the backdrop of global attention on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Germany is signaling a commitment to Ukraine, sending a message and continuing to deter Russia. Second, it expresses EU's security concerns to the US, reminding the US not to overlook the Russia-Ukraine situation because of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Third, Germany showcases leadership to allies while emphasizing its "Western identity," fulfilling the obligation to uphold EU security.
However, Germany's large-scale military assistance may ultimately result in "much ado about nothing." On one hand, Germany's economic situation has been unfavorable since the onset of the Ukraine crisis, and this year it may even become the only developed industrialized country to experience a recession. Recently, German media exposed a budget gap of over 5 billion euros for military aid to Ukraine in the German government's 2024 budget. This means that the current commitments may not be fully realized. On the other hand, the German public has concerns about the effectiveness and cost of aiding Ukraine. Recent polls indicate a decrease in the proportion of Germans supporting further assistance to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently stated that he is prepared for new talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin. This suggests that Germany still hopes that political mediation can play a role, rather than fully shifting towards relying on military means to address the issue.
(The author is with the Department for European Studies, China Institute of International Studies)
