By Zhao Long
Upon concluding a whirlwind visit to the UAE and Saudi Arabia, Russian President Vladimir Putin received the visiting Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in Moscow on December 7. From the intensive diplomatic agenda of the Russian leader, it can be seen that in the context of the ongoing protracted Ukraine crisis and the complex evolution of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, Russia is taking the initiative to increase focus and engagement in the Middle East agenda in a bid to take it as a key option for its diplomatic breakthrough. Specifically, Russia's diplomatic thrust in the Middle East has multiple objectives.
First, to send political signals. Since the sudden intensification of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, it had become an important means for the US and Europe to show their political standpoints by isolating Russia on all diplomatic fronts and restricting its participation in multilateral occasions using techniques such as declining attending invitations and exiting midway. The probability of rapidly restoring the frequency and scope of head-of-state diplomacy has become an important indicator for Russia to demonstrate strategic confidence, break Western isolation and return to the international stage.
The choice of time and targets of Putin's visit reflects that Russia is tentatively ramping up its diplomatic breakthrough efforts. Putin's first visit to the UAE coincided with the departure of Western leaders, when the 28th meeting of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was held. Combined with the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's first participation in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Ministerial Council meeting since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and his simultaneous presence with representatives of many European countries, it can be seen that Russia hopes to demonstrate its confidence in managing an extended crisis with Ukraine by way of diplomatic breakthrough.
Second, to reinforce the economic lifeline. Since the beginning of 2023, the US and European countries have switched from a unilateral ban to a multilateral price limit and embargo on Russian energies, which had once recovered the global energy prices to the pre-conflict level and battered Russia's ability to achieve economic self-sustainment through energy premiums. The way to find the common interests with major Middle East oil producing countries by using the "OPEC+" mechanism and to stabilize oil prices through joint production reduction has been regarded as one of the primary goals for Russia to respond to sanctions, and Saudi Arabia also serves as the key to sustaining the production cuts. Further strengthening the UAE's position as the largest trading country and investment partner of Russia in the Middle East has become an important part of Putin's Middle East diplomatic plan.
Russia hopes to maintain cohesion on the voluntary production cut issue with Saudi Arabia through the head-of-state diplomacy, to foster collective actions within the "OPEC+" mechanism to tackle the declining oil prices. Russia also deepens investment and technical cooperation with the UAE to maintain its comparative advantages on the battlefield by reinforcing both energy incomes and foreign investment, the two main economic lifelines.
Third, to seek strategic hedging. The Palestinian-Israeli issue ran through Putin's trip to the Middle East and was also the focus of his meeting with the head of Iran. In fact, when the Palestinian-Israeli conflict began to escalate, Russia had repeatedly called on all relevant parties to abide by the two-state solution on the basis of UN resolutions, and Putin had also expressed intention to mediate between them but received no direct response. This face-to-face engagement with the leaders of major Middle East countries will not only help coordinate standpoints and interest claims, but also strengthen Russia's role as a main external player in the political and security agendas of the Middle East.
More importantly, seizing the opportunity of mediating the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to strengthen interactions with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, both being important allies of the US, could demonstrate Russia's distinct sway over them and be treated as a vital instrument to curb the US agenda in the Middle East. Increasing involvement in the Middle East issue can also form the second front of Russia-US strategic gaming, increasing the dispersion of resources dedicated to supporting Ukraine by the US and achieving strategic hedging.
Last, to push the diversion of focus. The Russian elites generally believe that even if Russia and Ukraine could attain a ceasefire or resume negotiations to halt this round of crisis, the Western countries will not completely lift sanctions or fundamentally change the containment against Russia. Therefore, Russia needs to accelerate the eastward geopolitical strategy. But from a practical point of view, this strategic shift, based on the initial "west to east" policy, is now mainly targeting "east to south" approaches, particularly prioritizing the significant enhancement of the interest linkage with the Global South including the Middle East countries. Strengthening the planning of the Middle East agendas is fully in line with the overall strategic layout and diplomatic focus adjustment direction of Russia. In addition, Russia is about to assume the rotating presidency of the BRICS countries in 2024, so the three target countries of Putin's Middle East diplomatic push are all new members of the group. It is also of strategic significance for Russia to consolidate international status through the BRICS cooperation mechanism, set agendas closely related to its own interests and extend the attractiveness of the BRICS cooperation.
All in all, the Middle East agenda is emerging as a key link for Russia to break the diplomatic isolation situation, strengthen economic resilience in the face of sanctions and hedge against Western strategic pressure. However, amid the intricate interests entanglement behind the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, structural transformation of the global energy landscape and Western countries' consensual resistance, systematic isolation and bloc containment, Russia will still encounter many uncertainties to truly realize the diplomatic breakthrough.
(The author is a researcher and Deputy Dean of Institute for Global Governance Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies)
Editor's note: Originally published on opinion huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
