By Li Zhe
US Pacific Army spokesman Rob Phillips recently said that the military plans to deploy intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) in the Indo-Pacific region in 2024. This will mark the country's inaugural deployment of land-based IRBMs in the region since the end of the Cold War, and also its first deployment of such weaponry after withdrawing from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019. Such a move will inevitably raise the risk of regional wars and severely undermine global strategic stability.
According to the plan, the US will deploy the launch system code-named "Typhon" as well as land-based Standard SM-6 missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of 500 to 2,700 kilometers. Among them, the Standard SM-6 missiles were originally designed as ship-borne air defense and anti-ship missiles with ground-strike capability, which feature a short range but rapid response and flight speeds, capable of striking certain sensitive targets. It is especially important to keep an eye on the US sea and air-based Tomahawk cruise missiles, which were previously installed with conventional warheads under the restrictions by the INF Treaty. Now, the US military may load it with nuclear warheads after re-initiation of this deployment.
It is analyzed that these IRBMs will be deployed to the so-called first island chain and second island chain military bases of the US, which multiple purposes.
To disrupt the anti-access/area denial capabilities of the opponents. In recent years, the US has been endeavoring to establish a joint all-domain maneuver operational posture characterized by dispersed forces and concentrated firepower in the Western Pacific region, and to build miniaturized and multi-functional strike packages such as the Army's Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTF), the Air Force Vanguards and the Marine Littoral Regiments, aiming to counter the anti-access/area denial capabilities of the adversaries. The Typhon system has been tested to be capable of deploying the Army's MDTFs, which will be empowered with diverse striking functions upon deployment in the Indo-Pacific, posing realistic threats to regional countries due to its advantages of shortened distance, improved accuracy, and reduced costs for striking missions.
To enrich deterrence options. Since the release of the 2018 Nuclear Posture Review, the US has stepped up efforts in shaping tailored deterrence capabilities, that is, to expand the available options and range of deterrence by combining large-scale retaliation and flexible response. In this context, the US has been focusing on the development and production of low-yield and dual-capable weapons in the past years, in a bid to generate a persistent sense of real security risks for the adversaries through indistinct nuclear threshold. Land-based IRBMs can effectively fill in the deterrence options for the US Army. However, it must be noted that this type of weapon features due-capable, which will dramatically escalate the risk of nuclear wars.
To strengthen strategic ties with allies. Despite the fact that countries like Japan, the ROK, and the Philippines are not proactive enough in responding to the US deployment of IRBMs, there is a real possibility that the US will deploy IRBMs on the territories of its Indo-Pacific allies and partners within a short time when situation requires son in the future, considering that Japan and the ROK have actively expressed desire to seek nuclear sharing with the US since 2022, and the Philippines has repeatedly promised to provide military bases for the US. This will undoubtedly disturb the relatively peaceful and tranquil security environment that has been maintained in the Asia-Pacific region for many years.
To push aggressively for self-serving arms control negotiations. In recent years, the US has been shaping public opinion to create the perception that China and Russia have gained an advantage in the deployment of intermediate-range missile weapons, but skirts around the fact of its continuous advance of military deployment in the name of providing extended deterrence and ensuring the so-called collective security for its allies and partners. The US deployment of IRBMs in the Indo-Pacific by clamoring the Russian and Chinese missile-based threats aims at replicating the carrot-and-stick policy of combining deterrence and persuasion that was used to force the Soviet Union into the INF Treaty negotiations during the Cold War, in an attempt to trap the opponent in a dilemma.
The announcement of the deployment of intermediate-range missile weapons by the US is the epitome of its military pressure and containment in recent years. For the time to come, the US military may continue to undermine global strategic stability and deteriorate the regional security environment by using approaches including further deploying land-based intermediate-range weapons such as the "Dark Eagle" hypersonic missiles and equipping submarines with Tomahawk anti-ship missiles. These actions warrant utmost caution from the international community.
(The author is from the War Studies College of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese PLA)
