By Gao Ge

The year 2023 has witnessed prolonged military conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, intensified military gaming in South Asia, escalated tensions on the Korean Peninsula, and increasingly prominent major power confrontation. The emergence of a series of new military technologies has increased the complexity of military interaction between countries, and these negative regional developments have also exacerbated the already intense international nuclear atmosphere.

At present, the nuclear arms control framework between the US and Russia has essentially crumbled, leaving their nuclear and conventional military capabilities devoid of effective control mechanisms and treaty obligations practically obsolete. Their bilateral military relations could only be sustained through strategic restraint. Many countries possessing nuclear weapons have implemented different levels and types of upgrades to their nuclear arsenal, with the number of active nuclear warheads on the rise.

The strategic operational thinking of the US has developed from simply maintaining global deterrence to include a nuclear combat-oriented approach that addresses high-intensity military conflicts at the theater level at the same time. The existing strategic nuclear arsenal of Russia has achieved a state of equilibrium with the US, prioritizing the building of new-type nuclear forces in recent years. The Russian nuclear weaponry modernization strategy highlights the relatively "new concepts" compared with that of the US, but the deterrence effectiveness remains to be tested.

France is trying to show the international community its military influence in the world especially in Europe with test-fires of nuclear-capable missiles. The UK continues to develop and build the next generation of Dreadnought-class (provisionally named "Successor") strategic missile nuclear submarines and deepen and strengthen nuclear cooperation with the US.

India and Pakistan have also regularly tested a diverse range of ballistic missiles to elevate their nuclear deterrence. The DPRK has incorporated the nuclear weapons policies into its constitution to demonstrate a more determined stance to seek self-defense with nuclear weapons.

Due to ineffective enforceability of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), the nuclear stick has become a preferred tool for great power confrontation, and certain nuclear powers are adopting diverse strategies to exacerbate the trend of extending and spreading their nuclear capabilities beyond their national borders.

The US exploited loopholes in the NPT to engage in covert nuclear proliferation in 2023. What’s more, it plans to expand and upgrade the scope and formats of nuclear sharing. For one thing, the country prepares to replicate the nuclear sharing mechanism of NATO to the Asia Pacific, establish nuclear cooperation with Japan, the ROK, and Australia and help Asia-Pacific allies obtain nuclear combat equipment. Australia's acquisition of nuclear submarines under the AUKUS mechanism is just the product of this cooperation model. For another, the US is stepping up efforts to facilitate direct deployment of its nuclear combat forces in its allied countries. In June 2023, the US Congress approved funds to build lodging facilities for the personnel performing potential security missions at the RAF Lakenheath in the UK, which was widely believed to prepare for the re-deployment of nuclear weapons in the UK, equivalent to frontier deployment of the US air-based nuclear forces. If the US extends this model to nations in the Asia Pacific and other regions, it would be tantamount to the global deployment of the US nuclear arsenal.

Likewise, Russia has also launched nuclear cooperation with its allies. The country plans to deploy nuclear-capable Iskander tactical missile systems in Belarus and refit Belarusian combat aircraft to carry tactical nuclear weapons. This is the first time that Russia has prepared to deploy nuclear weapons in another country since the end of the Cold War.

Meanwhile, nuclear safety problems caused by various human factors have garnered more attention.

In March 2022, Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was taken over by the Russian military, and as the war progressed, this nuclear power plant and the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant were repeatedly hit. In the event of nuclear power plants being damaged due to warfare, there is a high likelihood of severe accidents such as nuclear leaks and contamination, producing the second "Chernobyl" and bringing serious nuclear disasters to Eastern Europe once again.

In August 2023, despite strong opposition from the international community, Japan discharged nuclear contaminated water from the accidentally damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant into the sea, seriously destroying the marine environment. However, the US defended the country by contending that this action is deemed to be safe. The response of the US has fueled Japan's determination to release nuclear contaminated water into the ocean, and the international community has been unable to effectively address the behavior of Japan. Thus, in the future, no one can rule out the possibility of Japan engaging in additional actions that may lead to nuclear pollutions.

Looking back on the past year, the global nuclear landscape presented a predominance of negative aspects over positive ones, allowing no optimistic prospects. In 2024, we anticipate that the international advocates for peace will join hands and give full play to the UN platform and the governance wisdom of multilateral mechanisms, striving to build a harmonious and peaceful world for humanity, through dialogue instead of conflict and communication instead of confrontation.

Editor's note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.