By Xu Yongzhi

The Japanese government recently passed the government budget draft for FY2024, in which the defense budget increased by 16.5% to a record high of 7.72 trillion yen, roughly USD 55.76 billion (7.95 trillion yen after factoring in the US military restructuring expenses). By thoroughly reviewing the defense budget document, it is evident that the country's military expenditure will be increased significantly, and a huge part of this will be prioritized on developing offensive weapons and sustained high-intensity combat capabilities.

Although Japan's defense budget for FY2024 has achieved new high, its military spending growth is far from reaching the peak. According to the plans of the Japan Ministry of Defense (JMOD), the country's defense budget will reach 8.9 trillion yen in 2027, the final year of the ongoing military development plan. Still, 8.9 trillion does not represent the ultimate conclusion, which can be observed from the annual procurement contract amounts endorsed by the JMOD.

Every year, the JMOD establishes a new procurement agreement for the purchase or maintenance of weapons and equipment, research and development technologies and infrastructure among others. Given that the execution periods of the relevant contracts are mostly extended over several years, the JMOD pays only a small down payment for the first year and the remaining amounts thereafter. Both the weaponry procurement amounts agreed by the JMOD in FY2023 and FY2024 exceeded 9 trillion yen, significantly surpassing the yearly defense budgets. It should be noted that the 2.2 trillion-yen yearly salaries paid to the military personnel are not included in the contract values. Figuratively speaking, the original procurement budgets of the JMOD remained only slightly over 5 trillion yen by deducting the essential living expenses, but above 9 trillion yen of products and services had been ordered surprisingly. Moreover, these extravagant spending will continue, the department's annual average contract amount between FY2025 and FY2027 will reach 8.4 trillion yen. Certainly, the balance payment will need to be cleared at some point. Thus, Japan's military expenditure post 2027 will be at least the sum of the previous annual average procurement contract amount plus personnel salary, suggesting a figure approaching 11 trillion yen.

Japan's actual military buildup far exceeds its military expenditure increase. Compared to 2022, Japan's military spending will grow by about 50% in five years. The purchase contract will go directly to the military buildup, so the amount is a strong indicator of the heightened military buildup of Japan. The JMOD negotiated a purchase amount of 3.5 trillion yen for the previous execution period of the military buildup plan (2019-2022), but raised it by 150% to 8.7 trillion yen for the ongoing construction plan implementation timeframe. Hence, the country's level of military strengthening is unprecedented since WWII, surpassing the growth rate of its military spending by a significant margin.

Enhancing saturation attack capabilities is a focus of Japan's current military buildup. Japan has currently determined to developing and introducing eight types of anti-ship or land attack missiles encompassing 11 sub models. A single-year procurement of the sub-model of improved (land-based) Type 12 anti-ship missile alone amounts to 96 billion yen. Even considering the high costs of weapons production in Japan, the annual output of this sub-model will probably reach a scale of 100 pieces. Japan had also purchased 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles from the US. In view of this, the number of Japanese anti-ship and land-based missiles may be calculated in thousands in the near future. Furthermore, the JMOD is not holding back in building auxiliary capabilities as they are currently channeling substantial investments into intelligence gathering and analysis as well as the harmonization of command systems across the respective Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). This demonstrates that Japan seeks to harness saturation attack capabilities against warships by launching a variety of missiles from multiple locations and platforms.

Japan is building the JSDF into forces that can fight protracted high-intensity battles. The so-called sustained combat capability has become a focus in the process of formulating their new security strategy, and the latest defense budget document also reflects the great importance they attach to this capability. First, it comprehensively increases the ammunition purchase. In FY2024, JSDF's ammunition purchase surges to 924.9 billion yen, and covers a wide range including offensive weapons as well as traditional ammunition such as artillery shells. Second, it stocks extra components. JSDF's equipment maintenance costs reach 2.3 trillion yen in FY2024. Despite the previous issue of reduced equipment readiness due to a shortage of components, the multiplied budget growth in these consecutive two years indicates that the JSDF is actively stocking vulnerable components. Third, it strengthens the anti-strike capabilities of military facilities on all fronts. The JSDF's infrastructure budget for FY2024 reach 600 billion yen, more than three times that of FY2022. From the perspective of the budget scale, the JSDF will comprehensively upgrade their military facilities to elevate the protection performance, especially the anti-strike capabilities of the headquarters and tarmacs. They will also construct new ammunition depots throughout the country, and add new or expand existing military bases in the southwest of the country.

This round of military buildup of Japan is intensely concentrated on certain areas and exhibits specificity, or commonly labeled as abnormal or anomalous. It would be insightful to observe the principles that it adhered to - the 2022 National Security Strategy. At the macro level, its national security targets unobtrusively added with contents including containing neighboring conflicts and unilateral changes to the status quo with the US and other countries, and concluding conflicts in a manner that favors Japan once they endanger the country. At the micro level, the strategy mentioned that "Japan will continue to make various efforts based on its position that the cross-strait issues are expected to be resolved peacefully", and continued to accuse China of "unilaterally changing the status quo". Japan has already semi-publicly declared that it will cooperate with the US in intervening in regional affairs by force. From the respective of the changes in budget allocation, Japan is envisioning to playing a secondary lead role in large-scale regional conflicts. Some destabilizing forces in the region will inevitably notice this particular military buildup of Japan, and may probably take it as an attempt to bolster themselves and engage in further "sausage-cutting" explorations. Therefore, Japan's current moves to strengthen military require significant attention.

(The author is an associate research fellow of the Institute of Northeast Asian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.