By Ding Long
The situation in the Red Sea has continued to escalate in recent days. After the US Navy sank three Houthi armed boats, the UK said it was considering launching air strikes against Houthi armed targets. An Iranian destroyer was reported to have suddenly entered the Red Sea at this time. These have complicated the situation in the Red Sea and raised the risk of shipping and armed conflicts. After the outbreak of a new round of Palestine-Israel conflict, the Houthis armed forces supported Palestine, launched cross-border attacks on Israel and took advantage of the convenience of being near the Red Sea waters to attack Israel-linked ships. The situation in the Red Sea is linked to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and has become an important symbol of its spillover. After the US launched escort operations, security risks in the Red Sea rose. The increasing chaos with increasing escort deviated from the US' original intention.
First, the Red Sea crisis will continue in the short term. After the exchange of fire with the US military, the Houthis said they would not stop attacking merchant ships in the Red Sea. This shows that this incident and the escort alliance formed by the US are not enough to deter the Houthis and may even stimulate the Houthis to launch more attacks. Although the US stated that it has no intention to have direct conflict with the Houthis, it also recognized the seriousness of the situation in the Red Sea. The US began to negotiate with the UK and other allies to sign a declaration on the situation in the Red Sea and it even considered launching air strikes against the Houthis to increase deterrence.
The US has no intention of expanding the war because it does not want to be involved in a war with a huge disparity in strength and it does not necessarily have a chance of winning. The US has entered an election year, and launching a new war is not what the Biden administration wants. The Houthis took advantage of this weakness. On the one hand, the Houthi armed forces attack merchant ships to support Palestine. On the other hand, they use the Palestinian-Israeli conflict to increase their domestic, regional and international legitimacy, forcing Arab countries, the US and the West to treat them as the legitimate rulers of Yemen, so as to earn themselves a favorable position in the political game in Yemen. Such a move has huge benefits but limited costs. Therefore, the Houthis are unlikely to stop their operations in the Red Sea before the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire.
Second, the US escort operations are ineffective and cannot tackle the root cause. After the US formed a multinational maritime coalition to carry out the Operation Prosperity Guardian (OPG), the Houthi armed forces were still able to penetrate the escort and endanger passing merchant ships. Some merchant ships that have nothing to do with Israel and the US have also been affected, which has increased the concerns of international shipping companies. As a result, more and more merchant ships have chosen to detour. This shows that the formation of an escort alliance by the US not only fails to solve the problem, but also increases the risk of conflict with the Houthi armed forces. The US has convened a meeting of more than 40 countries, hoping that they would join the escort alliance, but very few responded. This indicates that most countries do not recognize the legality and effectiveness of escort operations and are unwilling to join the US to tread on muddy water.
The root cause of the Red Sea crisis lies in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Israel's military operations in Gaza have caused many civilian casualties and a serious humanitarian crisis, but there is still no end to this conflict in sight. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is also the trigger for the Houthi armed forces to attack merchant ships. The resolution of the Red Sea crisis depends on the Palestine-Israel ceasefire. However, the US is deliberately covering up the connection between the Red Sea crisis and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and is describing the two as isolated incidents instead. And the US is only emphasizing the illegality and harm of the Houthi armed forces. Whenever the US talks about the Houthi armed forces, it must mention its so-called backstage supporter – Iran, trying to place the Red Sea crisis within the framework of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and conflicts between the US and Iran. This is nothing more than a discourse trap set by the US to absolve itself of responsibility by pointing the finger at Iran. In fact, it is unclear how much influence Iran has on the Houthis. Most of the weapons of the Houthi armed forces are manufactured locally, and politically the Houthi armed forces do not completely take orders from Iran. Going deeper, the protracted resolution of the Yemeni issue is another root cause of the Red Sea crisis. After the ceasefire agreement between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis expired, no conflict broke out between the two sides. The Saudi delegation also visited Yemen and met with the leadership of the Houthi armed forces, which created conditions for a political solution to the Yemen issue. However, the international community has not made enough efforts to this end, and the stagnant peace process in Yemen has led the Houthis to try to gain legitimacy through extreme means.
Due to the importance of the Red Sea shipping channel, the Red Sea crisis has risen to a global security threat, causing a serious impact on international shipping and global supply chain security. It will lead to higher energy prices and higher inflation, which will have a greater negative impact on world economic growth, drag down the economic recovery of Asian and European countries, and cause huge losses to Egypt and other Red Sea shipping stakeholders. The current OPG has proven unable to remove the root cause of the disease. The international community should seek more extensive, lasting, and effective solutions.
First, the international community should promote a comprehensive ceasefire between Palestine and Israel as soon as possible. The Red Sea crisis is a chain reaction to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The two are closely related and cannot be separated. A ceasefire between Palestine and Israel must first be achieved if the Red Sea waterway wants to return to calm. The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has lasted for nearly 100 days. Israel, the US, and the West should realize that even if Israel has super military power, it cannot achieve its goals. Instead, it will only cause greater civilian casualties and a more serious humanitarian crisis. The most realistic option for Israelis to stop in time.
Second, the international community should explore ways to solve the Yemeni issue. Although the Yemeni issue is complex and essentially a problem of the ethnic structure of a tribal country, it is not unsolvable. The positive attitude of Yemen's neighbors, the reconciliation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and the mediation of Oman and other countries are all factors that have improved the situation in Yemen. Yemen has just gotten rid of external intervention. If it is subject to military intervention again, the situation will be more complicated. This should not be an option for the US and other relevant countries.
Third, the international community should strengthen security governance in the Middle East. Under the tide of reconciliation, the political situation in the Middle East has taken on a new look and the security environment has been greatly improved. However, there are still many chronic diseases in the region, and these problems cannot be ignored just because the security situation has improved temporarily. Many security problems in the Middle East have their roots in development and governance. How to use the favorable atmosphere brought by the tide of reconciliation to promote security governance and economic development is a direction that requires greater efforts by countries in the region and the international community.
The escalating Red Sea crisis is evolving into a global security challenge that requires joint response from the international community. At present, the US and Western countries should avoid adding fuel to the flame and restrain their impulse to use military means to resolve the Red Sea crisis and the Yemen issue. Strengthening international coordination and seeking a political solution should become the international consensus to resolve the Red Sea crisis.
(The author is a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.)
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
