By Wang Jin
In mid-February, Israel launched its longest and most intense assault on southern Lebanon since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Recently, diplomats from the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union visited Lebanon to prevent an all-out conflict between the two sides; Israeli officials have publicly warned on multiple occasions that "time for diplomacy is running out". It can be seen that Israel is increasingly focusing on Hezbollah in Lebanon, as the Israeli army continues to achieve success in Gaza. The two sides remain uncompromising, while the conflict is expanding further.
After the start of the new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Hezbollah in Lebanon was the first to demonstrate its support for Hamas and to launch attacks against Israel by sending small units to infiltrate, launch rockets and drones, etc. In response, Israel has conducted multiple cross-border strikes against Lebanon, resulting in the deaths of several key figures, including deputy head of Hamas' political bureau Saleh Al-Arouri and Hezbollah senior commander Ali Hussein Burji.
The military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon has been escalating since the attack on Saleh Al-Arouri. In terms of the targets, Israel's utilization of intelligence and technological superiority has broadened the range of its strikes against Hezbollah, extending from its weapon stockpiles to its military leadership. Hezbollah's attacks on Israel have expanded from front-line radar installations and observation sites to include Israel's military command centers and barracks. Regarding the strike capability, Israel has deployed a certain scale of combat forces along the Israeli-Lebanese border, which are capable of launching continuous attacks into Lebanon. Hezbollah possesses a significant number of rocket projectiles, missiles, and UAV attack capabilities, enabling it to penetrate the Israeli army's "Iron Dome" air defense system and target locations within Israel.
Nonetheless, international public opinion generally believes that the possibility of a full-scale conflict between the two sides is unlikely. Currently, Israel's main forces are still concentrated in the Gaza Strip and face simultaneous threats from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. If a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah erupts, Israel's northern border areas will face sustained military pressure for a long period, thereby affecting Israeli military operations in Gaza.
For Hezbollah, engaging in fire exchanges with Israel is primarily aimed at supporting Hamas and alleviating its pressure in the Gaza Strip, while responding to Israel's "targeted killing" operations. While maintaining a certain level of offensive capability towards the Israeli military, Hezbollah avoids provoking Israel excessively to prevent itself from becoming a primary target.
Besides, at the recent 60th Munich Security Conference, international organizations and individuals from countries participating in the conference strongly called for a political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, demanding the liberation of the Gaza Strip from the cycle of violence. Under immense international public pressure, it is unlikely that Israel will further expand into a full-scale attack on Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Israeli-Lebanese conflict essentially stems from the current Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the foreseeable future, as long as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict remains unresolved, there will be no end to the Israeli-Lebanese conflict. As an insider from Hezbollah said, it will be an enduring battle, a war of attrition that demands patience.
(The author is from the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies, Northwest University.)
