By Wang Daning

Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron's remarks that sending Western troops to Ukraine is not "ruled out" have made the divergent positions between the country and Germany known to the public. The ability of these two backbone nations of the EU to effectively manage their differences has profound impacts on the international status of the EU and even the European security situation.

Apparently conflicting stances between France and Germany

On February 26, Macron said at an international conference in support of Ukraine in Paris that the West should not rule out the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz commented that this only represented Macron's personal attitude, saying that "there would be no ground troops on Ukrainian soil, no soldiers sent there from European states or NATO states". Macron then satirically jabbed at Germany for its indecisiveness on the military aid to Ukraine. Obviously, the frictions between the French and German leaders over this issue are evolving into open discord.

However, Macron's radical remarks about sending troops have significant deviation from the role he has consistently played as a mediator since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Known for softness towards Russia, Macron's genuine intent is not centered on assisting Ukraine, but rather directed towards other aspects. First, he intends to rebuke Germany and other countries for blindly following the US to fuel the Ukraine issue, leading to a backfire and self-inflicted consequences, yet come to a sticky end and face difficulties to escape the predicament. Second, he hints that European countries should resolve the regional crises autonomously rather than slavishly following the US, and France has the willingness and capability to take the lead in promoting European independence and autonomy.

The political rhetoric in Germany reflects that the country and other European allies are more inclined to follow the US than France on the Ukrainian issue. Furthermore, Germany still adheres to the bottom line of not directly sending troops to Ukraine and avoiding direct confrontation with Russia.

Reasons for intensified contradictions

From reconciliation to cooperation and to the backbone of the EU, the Franco-German Axis had been a model of coordination among major European countries and the main driving force of regional integration. Nevertheless, amidst the intricate shifts in the European dynamics in recent years, especially the impacts of the situation in Ukraine, the strained relationship between the two countries is readily observable. In this regard, there are comments that the fissures between the two nations are becoming increasingly evident, and their vying for EU dominance has been brought to the forefront.

The contest for supremacy between France and Germany is concentrated in many aspects, one of which is the difference in their defense paths. France has long desired to guide European countries to establish defense autonomy and thereby reinforce strategic autonomy, instead of solely depending on NATO. Germany argues that Europe's promotion of common defense is only a complement rather than a replacement to the role of NATO. Mutual bickering has taken precedence over mutual accommodation as the prevailing trend of the Franco-German Axis. This is undoubtedly rooted in the differences in their thinking logic and national interest demands, but there are also deeper internal and external factors at play.

Internally, the political and economic quagmires have led to a decidedly inward-looking and conservative turn in policies of the two countries, undermining both sides' willingness to collaborate on foreign policy. The leaders of both countries have to strengthen the emphasis on "national interest first" in foreign policy and place their individual national interests above their shared interests.

Externally, the assignment of roles between both parties needs to be modified. The traditional basic model for the effective operation of the EU is that France directs the course of high-level politics such as diplomatic and military spheres, while Germany dominates the economic and trade foundations. However, Germany is increasingly seeking to translate its economic power into political and even military influences. Against the backdrop of regional turmoil, Germany has embarked on a security policy shift marked by accelerated militarization, having set up a special fund of 100 billion euros (USD 109 billion) for the German military (Bundeswehr) and seeking to build the strongest conventional armed forces in Europe. In the context of divergent strategic cultures and security concerns between France and Germany, the security issue is emerging as the precipitating factor for fracturing dynamics between the two countries.

Restoration imperative for faltering EU engine

Driven by the interaction of internal and external factors, France and Germany's willingness and ability to seek reciprocal concessions are declining, and there are growing concerns about the potential breakdown of their relationship. However, the historical trajectory of EU integration demonstrates that this process can only progress continuously if both France and Germany truly serve as two engines. Given the multitude of internal and external challenges facing Europe at present, the significance of deepening cooperation between the two countries becomes even more pronounced.

France and Germany are in dire need of rectifying their strategic misalignment in Europe since the outburst of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Europe almost completely endorses the US when dealing with this conflict and related issues, thus being bound by the latter and stuck in a dilemma. On the part of the US, it has frequently undermined the strength of its European allies by fragmentation approaches. While many European countries are formal member states of the NATO and are compelled to follow the US, there is still room for them to express their own preferences and positions.

France and Germany still need to address their deviations in contrasted influences and stances on main issues in Europe. It is inconducive to building a more independent and secure Europe by directing the overall focus of the EU to remilitarization and plunging all regional countries into the vortex of great power competition. Only when both states decrease mutual contentions and increase mutual collaborations can the European integration process navigate constant twists and turns and move forward.