Is the Philippines pigheaded to continue on the wrong path?

Source
China Military Online
Editor
Huang Panyue
Time
2024-03-25 19:07:45

By Qin Lizhi

On March 21, a total of 34 Philippine personnel ignored China's warnings and dissuasion and illegally landed on Tiexian Jiao (Tiexian Reef) of China's Nansha Qundao. China Coast Guard (CCG) law enforcement members lawfully boarded the reef to investigate and handle the situation. Tiexian Jiao is an important gateway to the northern part of China's Nansha Qundao. Located between Zhubi Jiao and Zhongye Dao, it is the only way for ships traveling to and from China's Nansha Qundao. The Philippines has been engaging in illegal operations around Tiexian Jiao for a long time. In August 2017, the Philippines tried to erect buildings near Tiexian Jiao, which was opposed by China. Later, the then Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced their withdrawal.

China holds indisputable sovereignty over the Nansha Qundao and its adjacent waters, including Tiexian Jiao, which is supported by substantial historical and legal basis. Numerous biographies, geographical records, and territorial maps from the Eastern Han Dynasty (25–220) to the Ming Dynasty (1368–1644) recorded China's discovery, naming, and maritime jurisdiction over the Nansha Qundao. During the Qing Dynasty (1644–1911), the Chinese government depicted the Nansha Qundao on authoritative maps and exercised administrative jurisdiction over them. In 1935, the Chinese government's Committee for the Examination for the Land and Sea Maps compiled the Map of the South China Sea Islands of China, detailing the specific names of islands and reefs in the South China Sea, including Tiexian Jiao, which was then classified under Zhongye Dao. In 1983, the reef was marked as Tiexian Jiao on the map of China for the first time.

Tiexian Jiao is the closest reef to Zhubi Jiao, one of the three major bases in China's Nansha Qundao. Tiexian Jiao should at least be classified as a rocky reef and enjoy 12 nautical miles of territorial waters. In recent years, new sandbars have been formed on Tiexian Jiao under the influence of the natural growth of coral reefs, tides, waves, and other natural forces. There are extensive sandbanks around the reef, and the accumulation of waves is gradually increasing its size, with the potential to form a new land.

The actions by the Philippines on Tiexian Jiao are one of its series of actions to stir up troubles in the South China Sea. The change in the US strategy towards China is an important background for the Philippines' continuous provocations in the South China Sea. From a vague strategy of engagement and containment to a clear containment-oriented strategy, the Biden administration has positioned Southeast Asia as "the core of the Indo-Pacific regional architecture" and "the center of geopolitical competition." The US-Philippines alliance has become an important mainstay for the Biden administration's response to security changes in the Indo-Pacific region. The US promotes the interaction of security mechanisms such as the US-Philippine-Japan and US-Philippine-Australia, which increases the possibility of linkage between the South China Sea issue and the Taiwan question.

The US's continuous encouragement or acquiescence to the Philippines' provocations against China on the South China Sea issue such as Tiexian Jiao will intensify the internationalization of the South China Sea issue, increase the power of the hawks in the Philippine military and defense departments, and further lead to more serious confrontation or friction with China on the South China Sea issue.

Stirring up territorial disputes in the region also aligns with the US's tradition as a maritime power. By leveraging a wedge strategy to sow discord among regional countries, the US aims to prevent the integration process in the Eurasian region from undermining its strategic autonomy, a strategy evident in Europe, the Indo-Pacific, the Persian Gulf, and other regions.

The Philippine government is attempting to increase its security dependence on the US while seeking economic benefits and reducing its asymmetric dependence on China's economy. The US-Philippine alliance has rapidly strengthened since Ferdinand Marcos took office. Agreements such as the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), the Philippines' opening of four military bases to the US, the formulation of bilateral defense guidelines between the US and the Philippines, and the modernization of the alliance are all clear strategic signals. The Joint Statement of the US-Philippines 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue explicitly mentioned the focus of military assistance to the Philippines, which is to enhance the Philippines' capability to counter China.

In late 2023, the Philippines held joint maritime activities with the US, Canada, Australia and other countries. In this regard, Marcos said that this was just the beginning, and there would be more joint maritime operations in the future. These remarks were confirmed in its illegal landing on Tiexian Jiao. It is not difficult to see that the Philippines is pigheaded to follow this wrong path to the end.

Although the Philippines is currently riding on the US's coattails, there are variables in US politics. If Donald Trump wins the presidential election this year, overturning Biden's policies entirely is not out of the realm of possibility. At that time, Marcos will have to bear the consequences of his choices.

(The author is an associate professor at the School of International Affairs and Public Administration, and a researcher at the Institute of Marine Development at the Ocean University of China.)

Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.

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