By Wang Daning

The 2023 annual report of NATO released on March 14 showed that its total military expenditure in 2023 hit another record high at about USD 1.1 trillion. Driven by the US, the military expenses of NATO countries have soared in recent years. NATO's established military budget threshold of no less than 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) has triggered a domino effect in many countries outside the alliance, resulting in a proliferation of security anxiety worldwide.

Record-breaking NATO military expenditure

In 2023, NATO's military expenditure totaled USD 1.1 trillion, and the defense expenses of its European member states and Canada experienced an unprecedented growth of approximately 11%. Since NATO introduced the military spending threshold of at least 2% of GDP in 2014, the total military expenditure of its European member states had increased by about 32% as of 2023. Comparatively, data of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Sweden revealed that global military expenses ascended by about 19% between 2013 and 2022.

The US, as the leader of NATO, remains the pacemaker in military expenditure, with the amount regularly maintained at above 3% of GDP. The figure accounts for about 40% of the world's total in 2023, while its defense budget for FY2024 reaches as high as USD 886 billion, an increase of nearly USD 30 billion over the previous fiscal year.

To secure sustained protection from the US and enhance the role in shaping European security discourse, European NATO member states at the east front have seen a more substantial expansion in military spending, acting as obedient vanguards of the alliance. The defense budget of Poland even registered a higher proportion of GDP than the US, climbing from 2.4% in 2022 to 3% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024.

Despite the desire to maintain certain strategic autonomy in NATO, European member states of the alliance like France, Germany, Italy and Spain have also been driven to augment their military expenses. Of particular concern is the significant shift occurring in Germany, the foremost economic power of the EU. In February this year, the German government announced a record high of USD 73.41 billion of defense budget for FY2024, meeting the NATO threshold of 2% of GDP for the first time.

Asia Pacific allies' conformance to 2% threshold

In recent years, through the efforts of the US, there has been a pronounced tendency toward the development of the Asian Pacific version of NATO, and deepened military cooperation between the alliance and its Asia-Pacific partners including Japan, the ROK, Australia and New Zealand. These countries have also seen a surge in military spending and institutionalized the benchmark of military spending comprising no less than 2% of GDP.

Japan's defense budget for FY2024 also achieved a record high of 7.95 trillion yen (approximately USD 54 billion) with an increase of 16.5% over the previous fiscal year, while the figure for FY2023 had risen 27% compared with the year 2022. According to the Mid-Term Defense Program (MTDP) formulated by the Japanese government in 2022, the country's defense budget will reach 8.9 trillion yen by 2027, accomplishing the target of doubling the allocation within 5 years and reaching a proportion of 2% of GDP.

According to the ROK 2024-2028 Defense Mid-term Plan released in December 2023, the total military expenditure of the country will amount to about USD 270 billion over the next five years, where the 2024 defense budget is about USD 44.6 billion, growing about 4.6% compared with the previous fiscal year. Australia has planned to increase its defense expenditure to above 2% of GDP by 2026. Even for New Zealand, which is geographically distant from hotspot regions and has a limited military size, its defense budget has experienced a sharp increase of over 8% to USD 3.3 billion in FY2024.

Widespread security anxiety globally

Under the influence of the great power competition strategy of the US, the world has witnessed a new round of geopolitical turbulence and frequent conflicts. According to reports by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 183 regional and local conflicts emerged in 2023 worldwide, reaching the pinnacle level in nearly 30 years. Amidst the ongoing protracted regional and local conflicts and dim security prospects globally in 2024, more and more countries regard security as a scarce resource and seek to ensure security by enhancing military strength.

The strong sense of crisis has prompted many countries to adjust their security strategies, denoting the prominent significance of military hard power. The US attempting to assert global hegemony serves as the source of security anxiety. The US' consistent fueling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has disrupted the pacifist strategic culture formed in Europe after World War II, pushing relevant countries to seek hard power as a stronghold. European countries are following the US to ramp up military investment and expand the production capacity of weapons, equipment and ammunition.

Japan's increase in military spending is more of a proactive response to the security pressure created by the US. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Japan has launched a series of arms manufacturing and development programs supported by large defense budgets, with the ultimate goal of elevating the offensive capabilities of its Self-Defense Forces and achieving the so-called normalization of the country.

In the near future, many countries may follow suit to increase their military expenditure under the influence of NATO, which cannot alleviate the security predicament at all. Instead, it will engender an arms race, undermine economic development, social welfare and people's well-being, and even diminish allocations towards global public domain affairs such as poverty reduction and climate change mitigation, thus exacerbating global security and development challenges.