By Wu Minwen
During the summit between Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and US President Joe Biden in Washington on April 10, Biden announced what he called "the most significant upgrade in our alliance since it was first established" as they reached over 70 agreements including those on defense cooperation. During the joint press conference, Biden stated that the AUKUS defense partnership was exploring ways for Japan to join the second pillar of the group. This is an official invitation from the US, representing the AUKUS alliance, to Japan. Such an invitation clearly carries deep strategic considerations and warrants high vigilance.
Previously, AUKUS was comprised entirely of Anglo-Saxon nations. The US, the UK, and Australia are all members of the Five Eyes alliance and are the three strongest countries in terms of size, national power, and military strength within this alliance. However, the current focus of the US is on the Indo-Pacific region, while Australia is far away from East Asia and the UK is even further in the northwest corner of Europe. Such an alliance would face significant challenges in mutual support and collaboration during wartime. Japan's inclusion in AUKUS would provide it with a justifiable foothold in Asia. This is likely a key reason why the US prioritized Japan over other candidates. The other purpose of inviting Japan to join AUKUS is to leverage its technological and economic advantages to compensate for the alliance's shortcomings. For example, the US lags behind in the development of hypersonic weapons, and the UK can hardly offer any assistance, let alone Australia. Japan possesses strong capabilities in technological research and development and also has plans in this area. The US, the UK, and Australia agreed to launch new research and development cooperation in areas such as hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare equipment on March 5. Japan's participation seems to come at the right time.
Bringing Japan into AUKUS demonstrates the US's desire for Japan to play a pivotal role in its alliance system. The pattern of the US alliance system in Asia is already showing characteristics of "US-Japan +". Japan's role as a core member and pivot in the US Indo-Pacific alliance system is becoming increasingly prominent. And the US needs Japan to play a greater role in its global strategy. As early as 2014, the US welcomed Japan's breakthrough of the "Three Principles on Arms Exports". In the current Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US and its NATO allies spared no efforts to support Ukraine and ran out of their weapons inventory, which exposes their inadequate military production capacity and serves as a profound lesson.
Japan's military production capacity, however, is remarkably impressive, with as many as 1,500 Japanese companies engaged in military production, covering a wide range of sectors and possessing enormous production potential. Therefore, once the constraints are lifted, Japan's military production capacity could surge instantaneously. Allowing Japan's military industry to unleash its potential, the US aims not only to address the urgent shortage of weapons and ammunition supply caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict but also to prepare for future high-intensity competition among major powers.
In a sense, inviting Japan to join AUKUS marks a qualitative change. It transforms the composition of AUKUS from a purely Anglo-Saxon alliance to a multi-national alliance. Subsequent entries by Canada and New Zealand would seem natural, and this might also set a precedent for other non-Five Eyes alliance countries to join.
Japan's entry into AUKUS is no good news for regional and global peace. The Asia-Pacific region is a grand stage for peaceful development and should not become an arena for geopolitical games. Due to historical and practical reasons, Japan's military security movements have always been closely watched by neighboring Asian countries and the international community. Japan should deeply draw lessons from history and exercise caution in the field of military security. Countries like the US, the UK, and Australia should also earnestly fulfill their international obligations and refrain from doing things that disrupt regional and global peace and stability.
(The author is from the College of Information and Communication, PLA National University of Defense Technology.)
Editor's note: Originally published on zqb.cyol.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
