By Xie Siqiang
The US Congress recently passed a foreign aid package bill with USD 60.84 billion allocated to aid Ukraine. This has drawn widespread attention. At present, some of the ammunition listed in the new military aid package is being transported to the front line. The US move is tantamount to "carrying firewood to put out fire" as the Russia-Ukraine conflict has been dragging on, and is sure to further intensify the bilateral confrontation.
The unprecedentedly unfavorable battlefield situation for Ukraine acts as the major reason for the US to pass the bill. Several Ukrainian combat brigades have withdrawn from their positions due to insufficient ammunition. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and high-ranking officials such as Colonel General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), have repeatedly stated that the Ukrainian troops have been in deep waters and in urgent need of an aid package from the US side.
In the face of changes on the battlefield, the US dares not to stand aloof with no supportive actions for Ukraine, for fear that its leadership in the issue may be severely impaired. Given concerns about the prospects of the US presidential election and practical considerations for achieving their own strategic goals, some European countries have taken over the baton of military assistance to Ukraine during the period of US supply interruption, growing to be the main force in the aid.
Although the resumption of US military assistance has encouraged Ukraine to some extent, analysts believe that this will exert little effect on turning the tide in the conflict and will only prolong the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
The latest US military aid packagebill does not specify the types and quantity of ammunition to be delivered to Ukraine, leaving room for the US government to flexibly "regulate" its aid to Ukraine. Over the past two years or so, the US has been attempting to control the pace of the conflict to continuously weaken and strain Russia. At the same time, the US has tried to further probe into the bottom line of Russia's tolerance and attempted to break through the military aid ceiling.
It is widely believed that the US military assistance may not be delivered in the short term. The allocated USD 23.2 billion as prescribed in the bill is scheduled to allocate weapons from the US Department of Defense (DoD) Supply System Inventory. In reality, it is difficult to deliver the weapons in a short time, because the US aid of ammunition is subject to diverse constraining factors.
Another USD 13.8 billion in the bill is for the purchase of weapons and equipment by the US government from arms dealers to aid Ukraine. The significant uncertainty in the production capacity of the US military enterprises also determines that the delivery may be expected to be completed in several months or even years.
The fact that the Ukrainian army's counteroffensive has been repeatedly thwarted fully proves that relying solely on advanced weapons and equipment cannot fundamentally break the balance of military power between Russia and Ukraine, and it is hard to reverse the battlefield situation, especiallywhen the Ukrainian military is still facing issues such as a shortage of troops. Even if Ukraine gets military reinforcement in the future, whether it can be converted into actual combat power is still yet to be tested.
As pointed out by analysts, the range of Ukraine's strikesagainst targets within Russia will further expand with precision strike weapons featuring a longer-range provided to Ukraine by the US-led West. The Russian military, on the other hand, is also deploying more troops, preparing for more aggressive assaults. It can be predicted that this so-called US aid with selfish purposes will not only fail to alleviate the tense situation of the Ukrainian crisis, but also prolong the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
(The author is from the War Studies College of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese PLA.)
