According to reports, the US officials revealed that the US is close to an agreement to give Ukraine long-range cruise missiles that could reach deep into Russia, but Kyiv would need to wait several months as the US works through technical issues ahead of any shipment.
It is learned that the US plans to provide Ukraine with Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM). The JASSM family includes three key variants, with a range between 360 kilometers and 1,000 kilometers. According to the US media, these missiles are more advanced than any stand-off weapons currently in Ukraine's arsenal and can penetrate Russia's most robust defense systems.
Chinese military observer Shao Yongling speculates that the missiles the US might provide are the AGM-158A. Although these missiles boast precision strike capability and stealth penetration features, it seems a bit overstated that they can penetrate Russia's most robust defense systems. The US will probably provide the AGM-158A missile with a range of 360 kilometers for Ukraine. This long-range cruise missile can be mounted on F-16 fighter jets, offering slightly better performance than the Storm Shadow (SCALP EG) missile but slightly inferior to army tactical missiles. The stealth performance and the ability to fly at low altitudes of the AGM-158A missile make it theoretically difficult to intercept, but not impossible. It had been claimed that it would be very difficult to intercept the Storm Shadow (SCALP EG) missile, but Russia's air defense systems managed to intercept many of them.
In the past few months, Ukraine has been urging the US to agree to supply JASSM to extend the reach of Ukraine's military systems. But the US has been reluctant to provide Ukraine with weapons that could potentially strike targets within Russia, for fear of escalating the conflict. Other Western countries have also been supplying weapons to Ukraine with restrictions on how and when these weapons can be used within Russian territory.
Why has the US suddenly changed its mind and decided to provide long-range missiles to Ukraine? According to expert Shao, this is an old trick of the US and other Western countries. They aim to gradually ease the restrictions on weapon assistance to Ukraine, thereby enhancing Ukraine's capability to strike deep into Russian territory.
Shao points out that they have two considerations, i.e. lifting the restrictions but not allowing it to happen all at once. They will impose restrictions on the use of aid weapons to Ukraine to avoid overly provoking Russia and then gradually lift those restrictions. In addition, with Ukraine now having F-16 fighters, the way they use them is also a consideration for the US and other western countries as F-16 is capable of carrying AGM-158 missiles.
Regarding the possibility of the US providing long-range missiles to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov warned that the US should not cross the red line of Russia. What would be the consequences if the US and other Western countries lift restrictions and allow Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons to strike deep into Russia?
Shao believes that Ukraine has already possessed long-range weapons capable of striking Russian territory, mainly various types of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). In comparison, the AGM-158 missiles from the US have stronger penetration capabilities, greater lethality, and higher accuracy, which would definitely increase the intensity of strikes on Russian territory. Once Ukraine uses these missiles to strike particularly sensitive targets in Russia, the conflict would inevitably escalate.
Editor's note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
