By Yang Zhen
The Korean Peninsula has been in mounting tension recently. The DPRK Foreign Ministry issued a statement on October 11th condemning the ROK for sending drones to drop anti-DPRK propaganda leaflets from the airspace over Pyongyang. On October 15th, the ROK's military fired south of the inter-Korean border after Seoul claimed that the DPRK exploded part of roads connected to South Korea. The next day, Pyongyang declared that more than 1.4 million youngsters had applied to join or rejoin the army over the previous two days in response to the ROK's major infringement upon and provocation against the DPRK's sovereignty.
What caused the sudden tension on the Korean Peninsula now? Who is stoking it?
The first name coming to mind is the US. It instigates the tension primarily for geopolitical considerations. As a hegemonic power in the North America, the US's consistent geopolitical goal is to dominate affairs on the Eurasian continent, but recent geopolitics dynamics are throwing sand in the gears - the Ukraine crisis is heading in a way beneficial for Russia, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is exposing Washington to unprecedented isolation in the Middle East, and the smoldering Red Sea crisis is challenging America's maritime hegemony like never before. To turn the tables, and also to step up the containment of Russia and China and pave the way for NATO's further expansion to Asia, the US military did not hesitate to dispatch its strategic nuclear assets, including nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers, and B-1B bombers, to the Korean Peninsula and its surroundings.
Domestically, the biggest political agenda in the US now is the upcoming presidential election in November. On the diplomatic front, US relations with Russia and China have worsened instead of being improved, and so has the Iran issue. The outbreak of the Ukraine crisis has somewhat turned America's European allies against it rather than make them more submissive, especially France, which has more than once displeased and even embarrassed the Biden administration.
On the defense front, more problems have been exposed in America's military development and deployment despite its soaring military spending. The US Department of Justice reported about welding problems with nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers by ship makers, and it has become increasingly difficult for Washington to meddle in Eurasian affairs on its military dominance. All these have cast clouds over the Democrats' prospects in the election. To reverse the situation, the Biden administration had no second thoughts about stirring up disputes on the Korean Peninsula, so that it could create for itself a so-called "enemy" and put up a tough image to gain public support.
Then there is the ROK. The leaflets dropped from its UAVs included personal attacks on DPRK leaders and contents aimed to estrange the DPRK people from their government, which directly caused tension and escalation. The Blue House explained that the leaflets were not scattered by the military but by public groups, which, however, are mostly US-funded anti-DPRK organizations whose actions are not only secretly permitted by the government but also manipulated by the US.
The ROK has two motivations for what it's doing. On the diplomatic front, Yoon Suk-yeol, abandoning his predecessor's "not taking sides" policy, has taken faster steps to align with America's regional strategy, earning his administration the name as the most "pro-US" regime in history. Upholding the so-called "value diplomacy", ROK is now one of the most staunch forces in the Asia Pacific in carrying out America's will. Even though the current disputes on the Korean Peninsula are obviously against the ROK's interests, Seoul, to prove its strategic value, has joined in instigating the disputes and taken various means to escalate the situation.
On the domestic front, Yoon Suk-yeol is having a tough time now. A poll released by an ROK agency recently showed a 25.8% support rate for the president, and a 71.3% non-support rate, a new high since he was sworn in 2022. To divert people's attention from his poor governance, and to continue obtaining support from the US, the Yoon Suk-yeol administration decided to provoke DPRK on the peninsula.
But such a policy will backfire. America's constant trumpeting about an "Asian version of NATO" and instigation of tension on the peninsula, disregarding the security and welfare of over 50 million ROK people, has already aroused their anti-war sentiments. A lot of people are going on demonstrations on the streets of Seoul, shouting "We want peace, not war". If this goes on, Yoon Suk-yeol will not be the only one with a headache - Biden cannot escape either.
(The author is deputy director of the Northeast Asian Research Center, Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
