By Wang Yanhui and Guo Xiaobing
The US military recently emphasized that missile deployment to the northern Philippines is "incredibly important" for combat readiness. Furthermore, the US and Philippine armed forces announced that the land-based mid-range Typhon missile system, initially deployed temporarily, will remain in the Philippines indefinitely. Prior to this, US Army Secretary Christine Wormuth had stated that the Army's Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTFs) would bring the Typhon system to Japan for joint exercises. This indicates that the US military is steadily expanding its land-based missile deployments in the Asia-Pacific region, with the goal of establishing a so-called "missile barrier" along the "first island chain." Such actions will undoubtedly exacerbate the security situation in the Asia-Pacific, fueling a regional arms race and increasing the risk of conflict escalation.
Constrained by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the US was banned from producing, testing, or launching land-based intermediate- or short-range missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, including their launchers. After withdrawing from the INF Treaty in 2019, the US has accelerated the development of several land-based missile systems. Among them, the Typhon missile launcher is capable of firing SM-6 missiles with ranges of 240 to 460 kilometers, along with land-based Tomahawk cruise missiles with ranges up to 2,500 kilometers. This missile system is highly mobile and can be transported over long distances by military cargo planes.
The US military has been rapidly advancing the development and deployment of the Typhon missile system. In April of this year, the US deployed the Typhon system on Luzon Island in the Philippines to participate in the US-Philippine joint exercises Balikatan and Salaknib. Initially, the Philippine military had stated that the system would be withdrawn by September, but has since backtracked on its commitment, indicating that the system will stay in the country on a long-term basis.
The US has demonstrated its eagerness to deploy land-based intermediate-range missile systems like the Typhon in the Asia-Pacific region for several reasons. First, the US aims to implement a strategy of "deterrence by denial." In critical moments, these land-based missile systems can be deployed to control the "first island chain," effectively blocking key straits and passages in and out of the Western Pacific. This move seeks to counter what the US perceives as an Anti-Access or Area Denial (A2/AD) strategy in the region.
Second, the US aims to enhance the diversity of its forward attack capabilities for absolute strategic advantage. The US military already possesses medium-range attack capabilities through sea- and air-launched systems, such as the ship-based Tomahawk cruise missile and the air-launched JASSM/LRASM missiles. By increasing land-based missile deployments in the Asia-Pacific, the US can further strengthen the resilience of its forward-deployed forces. In addition to the Typhon system, the US has also deployed the precision strike missiles, which participated in a live-fire exercise in Palau in June, with a reportedly maximum range of up to 1,000 kilometers.
Third, the US seeks to use these deployments to solidify its military alliances and raise the cost for potential adversaries to take military action. The Typhon missile system deployed in the northern Philippines has a range that covers the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, posing a threat to China's eastern coastal regions. Similarly, the deployment of the Typhon system in Japan threatens the security of China, Russia, and the DPRK. In the event of a future conflict with any of these nations, the US can leverage the Typhon system as a key tool to drag in both the Philippines and Japan.
The permanent presence of the Typhon missile system in the Philippines and its deployment in Japan will significantly jeopardize stability in the Asia-Pacific region. First, both countries are island nations with limited strategic depth. In the event of a conflict, the Typhon system could easily become a target. Faced with the dilemma of either deploying the system or risking its destruction, the US military would likely opt for a preemptive strike by using land-based intermediate-range missiles, which could further escalate the conflict.
Second, the risk of nuclear escalation associated with the Typhon system cannot be overlooked. The US integrated deterrence strategy emphasizes the coordination of nuclear and conventional forces. The US argues that advanced non-nuclear capabilities enhance its nuclear deterrence. This implies that the Typhon system could potentially be used to target an adversary’s nuclear weapons systems, thereby escalating a conventional conflict into a nuclear confrontation.
Third, the US deployment and sale of the Typhon system in the Asia-Pacific region will heighten the risk of missile proliferation. The mere presence of the Typhon system in the region contributes to the geographical spread of land-based intermediate-range missiles. Recently, the Philippine military expressed interest in acquiring the Typhon system. If this deal proceeds, it would violate nonproliferation export control laws under the Missile Technology Control Regime, further undermining international nonproliferation mechanisms.
(The authors are respectively an associate professor from Beijing Technology and Business University and a researcher from the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
Editor's note: Originally published on opinion.huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
