By Xie Fei
On October 26, Georgia held a new parliamentary election. According to early official results, the ruling Georgian Dream party won with over half of the votes. However, major opposition parties, including the Coalition for Change and the United National Movement, have refused to recognize the election results. Immediately, the US and some Western countries expressed doubts and opposition to the election results.
In fact, traces of divisions between the US-led Western countries and Georgia have been evident for some time. After the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, the Georgian government refused to follow the US and other Western countries in imposing sanctions on Russia, leading to growing dissatisfaction from the latter. In July this year, the US announced to indefinitely postpone exercise NOBLE PARTNER scheduled to be held in Georgia, which attracted widespread attention from the international community. What made the once close-knit "Noble Partners" part ways?
Located in the mid-western South Caucasus, bordering Russia to the north and the Black Sea to the west, Georgia holds a significant strategic position and has long been a key target for alignment efforts of the US-led Western countries. The US and its Western partners once dangled the prospect of helping Georgia join NATO and EU, driving a steady warming of defense cooperation between Georgia and NATO. Among these initiatives, exercise NOBLE PARTNER has been held annually in Georgia since 2015, attracting participation from numerous NATO member countries, including the UK, France, and Germany. However, this year, the US announced to indefinitely postpone exercise NOBLE PARTNER, and the EU suspended Georgia’s EU accession process while freezing defense aid to it... These actions have undoubtedly placed considerable political pressure on the Georgian government and cast a shadow over Georgia's relationship with the US and other Western countries.
According to Xu Haiyun, a senior researcher at the School of Global and Area Studies, Renmin University of China, the trigger for the suspension of exercise NOBLE PARTNER was the dissatisfaction of the US with what it considered "false accusations" by the Georgian authorities. It is reported that Georgia has accused some political forces in the US and other Western countries of participating in two failed coups in Georgia and asking Georgia to find an opportunity to engage in a war against Russia.
"Whether it is the suspension of joint military exercises or the public questioning of the recent parliamentary election results, these actions stem from the dissatisfaction of the US-led Western countries with the current political situation in Georgia. They believe that Georgia has not firmly aligned itself with them and is instead leaning towards Russia," said Xu Haiyun.
Georgia had been a staunch follower of the US-led Western countries, but now its attitude has changed. According to Xu Haiyun, since the 2008 conflict between Georgia and Russia, the Georgian government and its people have gradually realized that the US and other Western countries are unlikely to engage in direct conflict with Russia for the interests of Georgia, nor can they provide security guarantees for the country. The ongoing Ukraine crisis serves as a constant reminder for Georgia not to repeat the same mistakes and become the second Ukraine. Moreover, the repeated failures of Georgia’s aspirations to join the EU, with no hope in sight in the short term, have compelled the ruling party to adjust its foreign policy and choose a middle path, striving to maintain some balance in the great power geopolitical game.
Reports suggest that the recent parliamentary election in Georgia is viewed by the international community as a watershed moment in determining whether the country aligns more closely with the West or with Russia. Regarding the future trajectory of Georgia's relations with the US and other Western countries, Xu Haiyun believes that the US will continue to intervene in the security situation in the South Caucasus to maintain its hegemonic interests and its long-term strategy to win over Georgia and other regional countries will not change.
All these facts indicate that the so-called "Noble Partner" of the US and other Western countries is only "noble" when used against geopolitical competitors; once the "partner" shows any signs of neutrality, it would be swiftly given up. This also serves as a reminder for relevant countries to remain alert to the schemes of the US to disrupt regional stability for its own gain. Only by independently advancing their political agenda and making their own internal and external policy decisions can countries take control of their security and development.
