By Guo Xiaobing
Recently, the Biden administration significantly adjusted its policy on the use of weapons provided to Ukraine, permitting Ukraine to use the U.S.-supplied Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) to strike deep into Russian territory. With less than two months left for the Biden administration's term, why did it make such a major decision suddenly? What impact will it have on the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
The so-called ATACMS is a short-range ballistic missile manufactured by the US company Lockheed Martin. It can carry 170 kilograms of explosives and has a range of up to 305 kilometers.
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis in February 2022, the provision of long-range weapons to Ukraine and related usage policies have been a focus of controversy in the US. The Biden administration had misgivings about providing such weapons to Ukraine. On the one hand, it worried about depleting its own weapons stockpiles, as supplying Ukraine with a large quantity of such weapons could affect its military readiness in other regions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. On the other hand, Washinton fretted that the use of these weapons by Ukraine to strike Russia could escalate the conflict.
The Biden administration's adjustment of its policy on providing long-range weapons to Ukraine is made on the excuse of countering the DPRK's involvement in Russia's military operations. Firstly, from a tactical perspective, it can help Ukraine resist Russia's counteroffensive in the Kursk region, thereby preserving its negotiating leverage with Russia. The US claims that Russia is mobilizing 50,000 soldiers, including North Korean troops, to launch a large-scale attack on Ukrainian forces occupying Kursk. Ukraine could use the ATACMS to target the assembly areas of Russian and North Korean troops, key military equipment, logistical hubs, ammunition depots, and supply lines within Russian territory. Secondly, in terms of diplomacy, the US aims to send a deterrent signal to North Korea and prevent it from sending additional troops to support Russia.
In addition, the Biden administration's move is clearly influenced by the consideration of offsetting potential adjustments to Ukraine policy by Trump during his second term. Trump and Biden have diametrically opposite views on the Ukraine crisis. Trump has strongly criticized the Biden administration for providing large amounts of aid to Ukraine, advocating for an immediate end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. There are two main reasons behind his stance. One is from the perspective of the economy. He believes that war fuels inflation and that ending the conflict would lower commodity prices. The other is about strategy. He argues that ending the conflicts in Europe and the Middle East would allow the US to focus its efforts on countering China.
After the US announced it would permit Ukraine to use the U.S.-supplied ATACMS to strike Russia, the UK and France quickly followed suit, allowing Ukraine to use their long-range weapons to target Russian territory. In response, Russia has repeatedly issued warnings. Russian President Vladimir Putin had stated as early as September that lifting the restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western weapons would significantly change the nature of the conflict, implying that NATO would be directly involved in the war. In this context, Russia is considering revising the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence, emphasizing that any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, if supported or participated in by a nuclear-armed state, will be regarded as a joint attack on Russia. This means that Ukraine's use of long-range missiles provided by the West to strike deep into Russian territory could increase the risk of a nuclear conflict between Russia and NATO.
However, Ukraine's potential to leverage long-range missiles for local advantages and the window of opportunity for doing so are both limited. Firstly, the US supply of the ATACMS to Ukraine is limited. A portion has already been used and the remaining stock is not substantial. Secondly, the Trump administration will take office on January 20 next year. While the Trump administration may not have a magic solution to end the Ukraine crisis within 24 hours, it could certainly revoke the Biden administration's orders, reimpose restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S.-supplied long-range missiles, and thereby force Zelensky to comply more closely with the directives of the Trump administration.
(The author is a researcher at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
