By Li Yingying
In early November, Donald Trump won the US presidential election. Based on statements from Donald Trump and key members of his early political team, it appears that the second Trump Administration would likely lean towards reducing aid to Ukraine and pushing for peace talks with Russia, aiming to "freeze" the conflict. Recently, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also took the initiative to call Russian President Putin to explore the possibility of promoting peace talks. In response, Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would only engage in negotiations with Russia under the condition that it has strong support from third countries with a firm stance. President Putin stated that Russia remains open to resuming negotiations, but any potential agreements must account for Russia's interests and be based on the new territorial realities established by the ongoing conflict. The positions of both sides are sharply opposed. Whether peace talks can move forward will depend on Trump's actual policy actions and whether Russia and the US can find common ground on key conditions.
After the US presidential election, there have been signs of intensifying and escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Both sides are trying to maximize their gains in order to gain more bargaining chips for possible negotiations after Trump takes office. In recent weeks, Russian forces on the Eastern front have advanced at a pace of approximately 300 square kilometers per week, setting a new record since early 2023. As of mid-November, Russian forces controlled 18.8% of Ukraine's territory. In the Kursk region, Ukrainian-controlled areas are being surrounded by Russian forces on three sides. Russian officials claim to have recaptured around 50% of the territory in this area. Recent intelligence reports indicate that Russian forces have gathered around 50,000 soldiers and are planning a large-scale counteroffensive in the Kursk region. In addition, Russia has carried out a new round of concentrated strikes on Ukraine's critical energy infrastructure and military-industrial enterprises using long-range precision-guided weapons.
In the face of the harsh battlefield conditions, Ukraine's actions have become more daring. On November 10, Ukraine launched the largest drone attack on Moscow, forcing the temporary closure of two major airports in the city. Meanwhile, to assist Ukraine in accelerating its counteroffensive and to prevent the next US administration from adopting an appeasement policy toward Russia, Biden, with only two months left in his term, authorized Ukraine to use US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) to strike Russian targets. Considering that over 200 military and paramilitary targets in Russia are within the range of ATACMS, this poses a significant threat to Russia's logistics hubs and command centers.
Although Trump has not publicly disclosed a final solution to the Ukraine crisis, proposals from his close associates and advisers suggest that the new administration will shift away from Biden's policy towards Ukraine. This includes a reduced willingness to meet Ukraine's various aid demands. The proposal from the incoming administration is expected to include key points such as freezing the front lines and establishing an 800-mile demilitarized zone along them. Russia would retain control over certain Ukrainian territories, and Ukraine would commit to not seeking NATO membership for the next 20 years. Additionally, the US would continue to provide weapons and military equipment for Ukraine.
Russia currently insists on its strategic demands, including the legalization of territories it occupies in Ukraine and Ukraine's neutrality. It can be expected that, once the Trump administration takes office, there will be increased contact and dialogue between Russia and the US. However, reaching an agreement on each other's conditions and demands will not be easy. Besides, the Trump administration will need to consider the demands of its European allies, as Europe is unwilling to accept a defeated Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine insists on reclaiming its lost territories and joining NATO and is unwilling to become a pawn in any Russia-US deal. Currently, Ukrainian forces have used ATACMS to launch a series of strikes on Russia's border areas. It is also possible that Ukraine will use long-range weapons to target other regions in Russia if the situation becomes unfavorable, potentially further escalating the conflict.
In the future, the direction of the Ukrainian crisis will mainly depend on whether Russia and the US can reach a compromise on key conditions. If Russia does not accept the US proposal, Trump may increase aid to Ukraine and the conflict will continue. Even if both parties agree to sit down and negotiate, it will be a long process before reaching an agreement. The unchanging trend in the future is that the West will continue to increase its investment in Ukrainian military-industrial enterprises. Even if Ukraine cannot join NATO, the West is likely to accelerate the process of political and military integration with Ukraine.
(The author is an assistant researcher at the Department for European-Central Asian Studies, China Institute of International Studies)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
