By Wang Hengwen
Recently, the UK and Germany signed a bilateral defense cooperation agreement in London, codenamed the Trinity House Agreement on Defence. According to a joint statement issued by both sides, the agreement is a milestone, signifying that the military forces of the two countries are now more closely linked than ever before. It aims to strengthen military capabilities within the NATO framework and enhance Europe's overall defense capacity. The deepening defense cooperation between the UK and Germany will impact the balance of power in Europe's security domain, escalate the risk of arms races, and intensify geopolitical confrontation between Europe and Russia.
According to British Defence Secretary John Healey, previous UK-Germany defense cooperation was mostly ad hoc in nature, while the new agreement represents the first comprehensive bilateral defense cooperation framework between the two nations. The Trinity House Agreement on Defence covers a wide range of topics, including defense industry cooperation, and military deployments, among other areas. Amid the increasingly complex security situation in Europe, the signing of the Agreement by the UK and Germany to deepen defense cooperation reflects their comprehensive considerations in diplomatic and security matters.
The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict is the primary external driving force. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has plunged European countries into security anxiety, while also highlighting their deficiencies in key military capabilities and defense industrial capacity. Particularly in light of the US election results, European NATO members are concerned that the US may shift its military focus to the Indo-Pacific region, reduce its involvement in European security matters, and induce European nations to shoulder a larger share of NATO's military expenditures. In response to this potential shift, the UK and Germany have developed a strategy to strengthen their defense cooperation and enhance Europe's self-defense capabilities.
The UK hopes to rebuild a close relationship with the EU. In July this year, the British Labour Party defeated the Conservative Party and won the general election. Prime Minister Keir Starmer took office. Compared with the Conservative Party, the Labour Party adheres to the diplomatic philosophy of progressive realism, so it is more open and proactive in dealing with UK-EU relations. As a core country in the EU and its first economic power, Germany is a good "entry point" for bringing the UK and the EU closer together. Currently, the UK faces problems such as insufficient military funding and the "hollowing out" of its defense industry, making it urgent to integrate research and development capabilities and production capacity, as well as improve the efficiency of weapons production and procurement. Collaborating with Germany on defense can not only expand the UK's defense industrial advantages but also enhance its influence in regional security affairs.
Germany hopes to make up for the shortcomings of its defense industry through this cooperation. Although Germany is an industrial powerhouse in Europe, its status as a defeated nation in WWII has long restricted its progress in re-militarization. In addition, due to its traditional focus on land forces over naval power, Germany has gaps in areas such as long-range strike capabilities and naval equipment. Germany's decision to partner with the UK aims to address its defense industrial shortcomings, further enhance its leadership and influence within the EU, and achieve a transformation and upgrade of its military and security policies.
After the signing of the Trinity House Agreement on Defence, the British Ministry of Defence declared that it marked a fundamental shift in UK-Germany relations and European security affairs. Although the deepening defense cooperation between the UK and Germany advances the process of European defense integration, it brings about significant geopolitical security risks, making the European security landscape more complex.
With the signing of the Trinity House Agreement on Defence between the UK and Germany under the support of France, the triangular bilateral defense agreement between the three major military powers in Europe has been fully formed. The UK-Germany defense cooperation this time is a prelude to the much-anticipated adjustment of UK-EU relations and the deepening of cooperation among NATO's European allies. It is specifically mentioned in the Trinity House Agreement on Defence that all cooperation projects are open to other partners, leaving room for expansion from bilateral to multilateral mechanisms. This may prompt more European countries to follow suit and sign a number of similar cross-bilateral and multilateral agreements, thereby enhancing the domestic self-defense capabilities of Europe.
It is worth noting that the Trinity House Agreement on Defence is clearly intended to target Russia. The new long-range strike weapons that the UK and Germany plan to develop are likely to align with the "European Long-Range Strike Approach" launched in July by France, Germany, Italy, and Poland. The core objective of this initiative is to develop a new type of land-based cruise missile with a range of 1,000 to 2,000 kilometers, capable of striking deep into Russia's European territory, even reaching its interior, when launched from NATO's eastern flank. The joint air patrols conducted by the UK and German air forces will inevitably constrain Russia's strategic space in the maritime direction. In addition, the agreement involves further assistance to Ukraine, which will escalate the military confrontation between NATO and Russia in Europe, making the future security landscape of Europe even more complex.
