By Ding Xiaoxing
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has lasted for over 1,000 days, but the fierce battles remain deadlocked. In August, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise attack on Kursk. Since September, Russian advances in eastern Ukraine have noticeably accelerated. Meanwhile, significant changes are unfolding off the battlefield. For example, Donald Trump, who has long vowed to end the conflict, won the US presidential election.
Based on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict as well as the global landscape, the deadlock is hard to break but peace talks are inevitable. There are four reasons why such talks are inevitable.
First, the deadlocked battle brought heavy losses to both sides. Since neither side can end the war quickly and completely, a prolonged war will only cause more losses. As the room for resolving the problem through military means alone has been exhausted, moving towards negotiation is inevitable.
Second, the voices advocating peace talks in Russia and Ukraine are growing louder. Both sides have suffered huge lost and irreversible casualties and people in both countries are tired of the war. Relevant polls show that more than 50% of the people in both countries support ending the war or starting peace talks as soon as possible.
Third, given the mismatched national and military power, Ukraine relies heavily on external support. It is reported that since February 2022, Ukraine has received over USD 235 billion in military and financial aid from more than 40 countries and EU institutions, excluding weapons, intelligence, and other support.
Fourth, the external environment has undergone tremendous changes. Many elections and party alternations are underway in Western countries, which will have a major impact on the direction of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Global South countries advocate that Russia and Ukraine hold peace talks as soon as possible. The six-point consensus on a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis jointly issued by China and Brazil has been supported by more than 100 countries. The group of Friends for Peace on the Ukraine crisis jointly initiated by Global South countries is also helping cool down the situation.
At the same time, there are still many difficulties to be solved before Russia and Ukraine can hold peace talks. Firstly, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has suddenly escalated recently. The Biden administration allowed Ukraine's use of US Army Tactical Missile System（ATMS）to strike targets inside Russia, and the UK and France also seemed to have lifted relevant restrictions. On November 21, Russian troops used a new hypersonic missile Oreshnik to strike a facility within Ukraine's defense industrial complex, which was regarded as a response and severe warning to the West.
Secondly, while Trump views aid to Ukraine as a "bottomless pit" and is reluctant to focus on the conflict, there are still many anti-Russia hardliners in the US and within the Republican Party. They believe that continuing the Russia-Ukraine conflict may be beneficial to the US and can achieve the strategic goal of "weakening Russia and controlling Europe" .
Thirdly, European leaders fear that Trump's return to power might result in diminished support for Ukraine, thus threatening Europe's security. In a recent meeting, UK and French leaders reaffirmed their unwavering support for Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also expressed his commitment to ensuring continued defense assistance to Ukraine.
As Trump's inauguration date approaches, the possibility of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has increased. However, the differences between Russia and Ukraine are huge, and the road to peace talks is destined to be difficult. At present, the Trump team has not given a clear plan but has questioned the recent decision of the Biden administration and expressed that Europe should play a "key role" in the process of restoring peace. The most discussed in the West is the "land for NATO membership" plan, that is, Ukraine accepts the territorial reality while being granted NATO membership to prevent future conflicts. However, this plan is unlikely to gain Russia's approval. Russia and Ukraine have previously signed two Minsk agreements on the Ukraine crisis, which all failed to guarantee peace. Neither Russia nor Ukraine needs a third Minsk agreement, which makes peace talks very difficult.
More importantly, the root cause of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is the security issue in Europe. Even if Russia and Ukraine can temporarily cease fire, it cannot fundamentally solve the core issue of the conflict. Although Russia has proposed the initiative to build a new Eurasian security framework, the West still advocates the establishment of a security system without Russia. Therefore, the confrontation between Russia and the West will continue for a long time.
(The author is the director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
