By Yang Zhen
Following the US removal of restrictions on long-range weapons, Ukraine used the US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) for the first time to strike a Russian ammunition depot in Russia's Bryansk region on November 19. In response, the Russian army retaliated within 48 hours. On November 21, the Ukrainian Air Force posted on the social media platform Telegram that Russian forces launched a series of missile attacks, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, targeting critical infrastructure and enterprises in the city of Dnipro, Ukraine, in the morning. Some Ukrainian and US officials later said that the missile launched by the Russian military that day may have been intermediate-range ballistic missile. As a result, the two sides broke out a "missile war" of the highest technology to date, and the intensity and severity of the Ukraine crisis increased significantly.
For Ukraine, the current situation is despairing. Despite creating some chaos during the Kursk counteroffensive, Ukrainian forces eventually found themselves in a predicament due to significant troop losses and encirclement on three sides. To make matters worse for Ukrainian forces, Trump's election has led to the loss of crucial external support for Ukraine. In this context, with permission from the Biden administration, Ukraine carried out tactical missile strikes on Russia, intensifying the conflict in an attempt to secure a slim hope for survival. However, this risky strategy undoubtedly makes the situation more complicated and dangerous. The missile attacks enraged Russian President Vladimir Putin, who stated that the conflict in Ukraine had taken on "elements of a global character", hinting that Russia may escalate its resistance on a global scale. In addition, Putin stressed that Russia will decide on further deployment of intermediate-range and medium-range missiles depending on actions of US and its satellites.
In the strike, the Russian troops used a new conventional intermediate-range missile with the codename Oreshnik for the first time. Putin specifically mentioned its performance and the effectiveness of the strike. This missile is part of Russia's new generation of hypersonic weapons, with a range of 1,000 to 5,500 kilometers. It is capable of carrying both nuclear and conventional warheads, and boasts extremely high accuracy, with a circular error probability (CEP) of no more than 1 meter.
According to Russian media, the Oreshnik missile represents a significant technological advancement over the Soviet-era Pioneer missile, with higher speed, enhanced penetration capabilities, and the ability to carry multiple warheads. Russian military expert Alexey Leonkov stated that the Oreshnik is a strong response to NATO's provocations, with its deployment range sufficient to cover major European cities and the west coast of the US.
Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh confirmed on the November 21st that Russia had informed the US in advance of its plan to test-launch the Oreshnik missile. She noted that the Oreshnik missile is based on the technology of the RS-26 Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile and its battlefield deployment poses a significant challenge to NATO's missile defense systems.
By using the Oreshnik missile to strike Ukraine, Russia sends a multi-faceted message. First of all, the formidable penetration capabilities of the missile place immense pressure not only on Ukraine but also on NATO. Secondly, with a range of 1,000 to 5,500 kilometers, this missile allows Russia to target NATO countries, including the US, with precision from its vast territory. Finally, the missile is capable of carrying nuclear warheads and has exceptional accuracy. This poses a serious challenge to the effectiveness of the US missile defense system and tests its ability to withstand such threats.
Currently, the Ukraine crisis continues to escalate and the competition between the US and Russia remains intense. The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine "missile war" has not only intensified the conflict but also darkened the prospects for peace on the European continent. Under the shadow of war, regional security has deteriorated and global geopolitical tensions have escalated, making the prospect of peace in the near future seem distant. This is the most concerning reality.
(The author is deputy director of the Center for Northeast Asian Studies of Shanghai University of Political Science and Law.)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
