NATO hosts the "Resolute Warrior 24" exercise in Latvia. (File photo)
By Huang Lei and Xu Shiwei
Recently, NATO has accelerated its military deployment in the eastern flank. In addition to frequent military exercises, NATO has continuously sent more troops and weapons and built military facilities. NATO, which regards Russia as its biggest threat, is trying to maintain its military advantage over Russia through these measures. However, in the context of the current tense situation in the region, the above measures are not only unhelpful to regional security and stability but may also be counterproductive.
Based on current developments, NATO's efforts to bolster its deterrence posture in the eastern flank are primarily reflected in the following aspects.
First, it strengthens troop deployments. This May, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Finland, and Norway jointly decided to build a "drone wall" along NATO's eastern border. In August, NATO's multinational battalion-size battle group in Latvia was upgraded to a brigade size and the preparations for five reserve units and two high-tech battalions supported by Latvia also started. Additionally, Germany deployed additional 4,000 Bundeswehr troops to be permanently stationed in Lithuania and dispatched a fighter jet task force to the Baltic region.
Second, it increases the frequency of exercises. According to incomplete statistics, NATO conducted over 10 exercises including the "Dynamic Front" artillery exercise, the "Freezing Winds 24" maritime joint drill, the "Merlin 24" anti-submarine exercise, and the "Resolute Warrior 24" field exercise in November in countries like Finland, Latvia, and the Baltic region. Major drills held earlier this year, such as "Steadfast Defender" and "Steadfast Noon," all took NATO's eastern flank as key training grounds.
Third, it reinforces the construction of military infrastructure. Since this March, NATO has initiated the development of Europe's largest military base based on Romania's Mihail Kogălniceanu Air Base to increase troop size and improve the strength of facilities and combat readiness in the eastern flank. In October, a military transport corridor established by Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland became operational, which facilitates the movement of NATO personnel and equipment. NATO also plans to build over 1,400 military facilities including large ammunition depots and strategic airports in Finland, Sweden, and other countries, and stockpile approximately 1.3 million tons of combat supplies to ensure the swift deployment of its forces.
In fact, as the forefront of the confrontation against Russia, NATO's eastern flank has always been the focus of its military deployment. Recently, its military deployment in the region has been accelerated, aiming to achieve three goals as soon as possible.
The first goal is to implement the established strategies. At NATO's 2022 Madrid Summit, "deterrence by denial" and "forward defense" were reinstated as core elements of its alliance strategy. In October, NATO's new Secretary General Mark Rutte listed defense construction as a priority in his inaugural speech. Moreover, NATO has launched a large-scale expansion plan, with accelerated eastern flank deployments serving as a key step in realizing this initiative.
The second goal is to counter Russia. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has persisted for over 1,000 days, increasing the likelihood of escalation and spillover. After Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the shared border between NATO and Russia has grown by 1,300 kilometers. NATO seeks to strengthen its troop presence along this extended boundary and enhance joint training and drills with its new member states to improve interoperability among its members.
The third goal is to prepare for potential US policy shifts. 2024 is the year of the US presidential election. There are uncertainties in the government transition and policy shift. President-elect Donald Trump has repeatedly said that the US would not support NATO allies that fail to meet defense spending targets. In this context, European countries are increasing their defense budgets and accelerating military capability development to mitigate the impact of a potential US de-prioritization of European affairs.
Analysts believe that NATO's continued strengthening of its deterrence posture in the eastern flank is likely to meet with strong countermeasures from Russia, which will further exacerbate regional security tensions. At the same time, European countries are facing greater financial pressure as they continue to increase their defense spending amid the current economic downturn.
