By Shu Meng

The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah officially took effect on November 27. Under the agreement, the Lebanese government troops have been redeployed to the southern border, while Israel will gradually cease its military operations within Lebanese territory. The implementation of the ceasefire agreement has alleviated tensions along the Lebanon-Israel border and residents of southern Lebanon began to return to their homes.

Why did Israel choose to sign a ceasefire agreement at this time?

First, Israel's military strikes against Hezbollah have yielded some results. The top leadership of Hezbollah has suffered significant losses, resulting in a decline in its overall strength. However, Israel is fully aware that this military operation alone will not be sufficient to eradicate Hezbollah. It is a shrewd decision by Israel to terminate the operation at this point, recognizing the challenges of achieving further objectives and prioritizing its strategic interests.

Second, Israel will face increased pressure on multiple fronts if it continues military strikes on Lebanon. Currently, Israel is still conducting military operations in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, it must remain vigilant against potential disruptive attacks from Iran and other "resistance forces." In this context, ending the multi-front operations allows Israel to effectively reduce resource consumption and avoid the military and political risks associated with extended frontlines.

Third, this move by Israel undoubtedly serves to strengthen its relationship with the US and ensure its strategic interests in the Middle East. From the perspective of US-Israel relations, signing a peace agreement with Lebanon at this juncture not only enhances President Joe Biden's political legacy but also serves as a diplomatic gift for the incoming President Donald Trump who explicitly stated his intention to bring peace to the chaotic Middle East and achieve ceasefire agreements during his campaign.

In addition, the signing of the ceasefire agreement provides Israel with an opportunity to convert its military advantage on the battlefield into a strategic advantage. Since the outbreak of the new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict in 2023, Israel's military actions have escalated and continued, leading to a surge in criticism from the international community. Although Israel has delivered effective strikes on Hamas in the Gaza Strip and also a significant blow to its long-time adversary Hezbollah, Israel's international image has steadily deteriorated. This has sparked a wave of global anti-Semitism, increasing the threats faced by Jews. Israel finds itself trapped in an escalating conflict with growing instability. In the future, the focus of Israel will likely remain on the Gaza Strip, aiming to strike Hamas with maximum force, resolve the issue of hostages, and ease international pressure through diplomatic means.

However, for the residents of the Lebanon-Israel border region eager to return to their homes, it remains uncertain whether this ceasefire agreement will serve as the foundation for long-term peace. History has shown that such agreements are fragile. The 2006 ceasefire agreement mirrors the current one in many ways. Although it briefly brought peace, both sides ultimately failed to honor the terms of the agreement. Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire agreement and rebuilds its armed forces along the border, Israel will take military action. This statement lays the groundwork for the potential military conflict in the future.

Moreover, with the re-election of Donald Trump as the US President, a shift in US Middle East policy is expected, particularly regarding support for Israel and countering Iran. These policy shifts could introduce new uncertainties in the development of regional relations following the ceasefire agreement.

Even before the ink on the ceasefire agreement dried, both Lebanon and Israel had already been asserting their influence in the border region. On the 29th, less than two days after the agreement officially came into effect, the Lebanese troops accused Israel of violating its airspace and breaching the terms of the ceasefire. This has caused the temporary stability in the region to resemble a boulder on the edge of a cliff, poised to crumble at any moment due to a new conflict. Moreover, the ceasefire agreement did not establish a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip as a prerequisite, yet it is the latter that remains the root cause of the current turmoil in the Middle East. Against this backdrop, the future of the regional peace process remains fraught with significant uncertainty.

(The author is an assistant professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.)

Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.