By Ding Long
The situation in Syria has undergone rapid and dramatic changes over the past dozen days. On December 8, local time, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, following negotiations with representatives of various parties to the Syrian conflict, had relinquished the presidency and instructed the Syrian government to transfer power peacefully. The upheaval in Syria is both a ripple effect over a decade after the end of the Arab Spring and part of the spillover effects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The swift change in Syria following the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire agreement highlights the fragility, complexity, and interconnectedness of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. The upheaval in Syria is also a result of the shifting balance of political power in the Middle East and will have profound impacts on the region's political landscape.
Overall, both internal and external factors have jointly contributed to the drastic changes in Syria's political situation. On one hand, the Syrian civil war is an unresolved conflict. Although large-scale hostilities ended in 2016, opposition forces have remained entrenched in Idlib Governorate in northwestern Syria and their strength has gradually increased. Although the Assad government had managed to overcome the survival crisis and regained control of most of the country, it had faced severe economic difficulties due to harsh international sanctions, leading to a difficult livelihood for the people. With outdated equipment and low morale, its troops were defeated in the latest offensive by opposition forces.
On the other hand, this long-dormant Syrian civil war has been reactivated by changes in geopolitical dynamics. In the past two years, driven by the wave of reconciliation in the Middle East, Syria has returned to the Arab world, significantly improving the geopolitical environment. However, countries like Russia and Iran, which provided crucial support to the Syrian government during the previous round of intense fighting with opposition forces, were entangled in their respective concerns and have been unable to pay full attention to the situation in Syria. Against the backdrop of the significant changes in the Middle East geopolitical environment caused by the new round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Syrian opposition forces have seized the opportunity presented by the complex and fluctuating situation of the region to launch a new offensive.
Externally, Russia, Turkey, Iran, and other members of the "Axis of Resistance" led by them are all considered key forces that have influenced Syria's internal situation in recent years. The reactions of Russia, which has military bases in Syria, Iran, which considers Syria a core member of the "Axis of Resistance," and Turkey, which plays a significant role in the Syrian situation, are worth closely monitoring. Compared to the past, the US and other Western countries seem to be less focused on the recent upheaval in Syria. This could help reduce the sense of great power competition over the Syrian issue and potentially prevent the situation from becoming more complicated and intractable.
Currently, the international community is primarily concerned with whether Syria can quickly restore stability and whether the political transition can proceed smoothly, so as to prevent the Syrian crisis from spreading and adding further uncertainties to the already fragile security landscape in the Middle East. After the upheaval, regarding the historic question of "where the situation in Syria is heading," all factions within Syria should make rational decisions. Regional countries and the international community should also play an active guiding role in promoting the swift restoration of internal political stability and overall peace in Syria. As one of the important cradles of human civilization, Syria used to be a rich and fertile land with a thriving culture in history. Over the past decade, the people of Syria have suffered greatly from the civil war. Preventing the country from descending into prolonged instability and humanitarian disaster should be the common goal of all relevant parties.
(The author is a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.)
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
