By Gao Yun
Recently, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order approving the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence. According to the document, any aggression against Russia and/or its allies by a non-nuclear weapon state with the involvement of or support from a nuclear weapon state will be regarded as a joint attack by both the non-nuclear and nuclear weapon states on Russia. Situations involving large-scale aerial attacks, such as the use of cruise missiles and drones, or any attempts to undermine Russia's nuclear deterrence capability, would trigger conditions for a nuclear response from Russia. Russia's Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that if Ukraine uses conventional missiles provided by the US-led Western allies to attack Russia, the new policy allows Russia to respond with nuclear weapons.
Analysts point out that this move aims to lower the threshold for Russia to use nuclear weapons, thus creating a strong countermeasure against the US and its allies' relaxation of restrictions on providing long-range weapons to Ukraine. As a result, Ukraine will have more concerns about using long-range weapons to attack Russia. This indicates that the nuclear game between Russia and the US has entered a more complex and subtle stage.
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, nuclear deterrence has remained one of Russia's most formidable tools to deter the US-led West. Senior Russian officials have frequently issued nuclear threats, supported by military nuclear exercises and missile tests. Although Russia completed revisions to its nuclear deterrence policy in late September, it had not activated these changes as the overall situation was controllable at the time. Recently, however, the Biden administration made a significant policy shift, permitting Ukraine to use Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) with ranges exceeding 300 kilometers to strike targets in Russia. This has added fuel to the flames of war that has lasted for more than 1,000 days. From Moscow's perspective, the removal of the restrictions on the use of long-range weapons of the US-led West signifies the direct involvement of the US and its allies in the conflict with Russia and will greatly change the nature of the conflict, so the act must be met with an "appropriate response" from Russia. Russia chose to approve the new nuclear policy at this time to issue a nuclear threat warning to curb the aid to Ukraine by the US-led West.
Russia has also taken a series of measures to enhance the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence in line with its nuclear policy adjustment.
First, Russia used the ground-based intermediate-range ballistic missile Oreshnik in actual combat. The Oreshnik missile can carry multiple warheads and reach speeds of Mach 10, with a range capable of covering all of Europe. Although it was deployed without a nuclear warhead in actual combat, its battlefield presence has had a significant deterrent effect. Russia has warned that if Ukraine pursues nuclear armament, it may respond by targeting Ukrainian decision-making centers with Oreshnik missiles.
Second, Russia has increased nuclear combat readiness level. Public information shows that a Russian military special-purpose aircraft Tu-214PU-SBUS command post recently circled in the airspace northeast of Moscow. This "doomsday aircraft", which is mainly used as an air communication center to undertake command tasks under nuclear war conditions, is suspected of conducting combat exercises. Ukrainian media reported that about 30 Tu-160 and Tu-95MS strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces began to gather at airports around Ukraine. Analysts believe that the Russian military was demonstrating the power of its air nuclear strike system. In addition, Russia began to build "CUBE-M" mobile shelters in batches, highlighting the possibility of Russia's nuclear strike and making Europe feel the "chill" of a nuclear war.
Third, Russia intends to resume nuclear test preparations. Russian deputy foreign minister recently suggested the possibility of resuming nuclear testing. The head of Russia's Novaya Zemlya Central Nuclear Test Site also confirmed readiness to restart such tests. These remarks, coupled with the US' subcritical nuclear test conducted last November and its recent deployment of the Aegis Ashore system in Poland, suggest that the US-Russia nuclear confrontation is intensifying.
Nuclear war has no winner and should not be fought. Analysts point out that the use of nuclear weapons is a strategic choice made at a critical moment for the survival of a country. Russia's adjustment of its nuclear policy and lowering of the nuclear threshold does not mean that it intends to escalate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Considering the statement of US President-elect Donald Trump to cool down the Ukrainian issue, one of the purposes of Russia's adjustment of its nuclear policy is to send a clear nuclear deterrence signal to the US-led West and Ukraine to curb their actions to further escalate the conflict.
