By Gao Wanying

From the launch of the northwest offensive by Syrian opposition armed groups on November 27 to the fall of Damascus on December 8, the Assad regime, which had endured 14 years of civil war, came to an end in just 12 days. The shift in Syria's domestic political situation could potentially reshape the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. On the evening of December 8, Syrian opposition armed groups announced on television that they had overthrown the Assad regime. The following day, sources said that Assad had arrived in Moscow by plane, where Russia would grant him political asylum on humanitarian grounds.

How did the opposition armed groups seize power?

The downfall of the Assad regime happened faster than anyone had anticipated. Overall, the unexpected offensive of the opposition armed groups, the exhaustion of the government, and the waning support from allies have collectively led to the current situation.

Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, the leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS),  stated that they had been preparing and training for this offensive for a year. During the offensive, opposition armed groups not only deployed new weapons such as drones but also swiftly captured airports and air force bases to prevent government forces from launching airstrikes. The meticulously planned raid, effective tactics, and the use of new weapons caught the Assad government off guard.

In terms of the Syrian government’s perspective, since the outbreak of civil war in 2011, the economy of Syria has plummeted, with GDP shrinking from $67.5 billion in 2011 to $8.98 billion in 2021, a nearly 90% contraction. Meanwhile, the US and some Western countries have imposed extensive sanctions on Syria. In 2020, the US implemented the so-called Caesar Act  to further expand the scope of sanctions on Syria, resulting in material shortages and further deterioration of its economy. In February 2023, during the Turkey-Syria earthquake, Syria was unable to operate even the heavy machinery needed for search and rescue due to a lack of fuel. Amid severe economic difficulties, the Syrian government struggled to make ends meet. Limited defense spending had weakened military capabilities.

While Russia, deeply engaged in the Ukraine conflict, has reduced its military presence in Syria, as well as the substantial support to the Assad government. Since the Gaza conflict, Israel has frequently targeted Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Syria, prompting both sides to reduce their presence in the country.

What lies ahead for the Middle East?

Syria, located at the crossroads of the Mediterranean, Red Sea, Black Sea, Caspian Sea, and Persian Gulf, holds a strategically unique position and has historically been referred to as the "Heart of the World." Now, with the shift in Syria’s domestic political landscape, it is highly likely to reshape the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East.

Syria’s political landscape undergoes a reshuffle. The overthrow of the Assad regime does not mark the end of the Syrian civil war but may signal the beginning of a new round of intense conflict. From the current situation, the HTS, which led the overthrow of the Assad regime, controls the western coastal areas and holds a dominant position among the various opposition armed forces. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA)  has captured multiple cities in the north, maintaining a stronghold along the northern border. Its strength should not be underestimated. The US-aligned Kurdish forces, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) , control the oil-rich eastern regions, possessing significant financial resources. It remains to be seen whether the Assad regime will regroup and make a comeback.

Regional countries are actively responding. Turkiye is a winner in this round of actions by the Syrian opposition armed forces. To solidify its current gains, Turkey is likely to continue supporting its proxies in the Syrian power struggle and use Syria as a base to target Kurds in the Middle East. Israel is unlikely to forgo this opportunity to expand its sphere of influence and continue targeting Iran. On December 8, the Israeli troops stepped up their military preparations in the area and planned to expand the scope of its illegal occupation. With the collapse of the Assad government, Israel may further encroach on the Golan Heights and seek "legal annexation" through military and political manipulation.

Major powers outside the region are looking on. Compared to the proactive moves of regional powers, the US, Russia, and Europe have taken a more cautious approach. Considering that conservatism and isolationist sentiments prevail in the US and Europe, they are unlikely to step into the Syrian quagmire with great fanfare. Besides, the US and Europe view HTS as a terrorist organization, so it remains to be seen how they will adjust their stance. For Russia, the top priority is to retain its ports and military bases in Syria, which requires a reorganization of its relationship with the Syrian opposition.

(The author is from the Institute of Middle East Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)

Editor's note: Originally published on www.china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.