By Guan Ruohe and Duan Ting

The Freezing Winds 24 naval exercise led by Finland under the NATO framework ended on November 29. Analysts said that as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to escalate, NATO's military preparations in the Nordic region not only fail to ease tensions but also exacerbate regional security concerns.

NATO has been steadily strengthening its military presence in Northern Europe since Finland and Sweden joined NATO. In 2024, to further deepen defense cooperation within the NATO framework, five Nordic countries including Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, and Iceland, signed the Nordic Defence Concept. They also conducted multiple military exercises in the region, such as Nordic Response and Northern Viking, alongside other NATO member states. These military actions reflect the evolution of NATO's internal relations and imply considerations of engaging in geopolitical games with Russia.

First, NATO aims to share and balance US-Europe defense responsibilities. With the arrival of a Trump 2.0 era, NATO member states in Europe have been working to bolster NATO's European pillar since last year to prevent potential US challenges and ease US-Europe defense burden-sharing conflicts. They have increased defense spending and military development and played leading roles in military drills in regions including Northern Europe.

Second, NATO intends to improve the military integration and interoperability of new and old member states. Today, the Nordic region has become the front line of potential conflict between Russia and NATO. As a result, the collective defense pressure of the Nordic countries has risen sharply. In this context, Finland and Sweden, which have just joined NATO, urgently need to further integrate into NATO's combat system and strengthen combat readiness response and front-line combat capabilities. Some analysts believe that NATO's high frequency of military exercises in the Nordic region is intended to improve its coordinated combat capabilities in the region.

Third, NATO attempts to strengthen its military deterrence against Russia. At present, the Russia-Ukraine conflict shows a clear trend of Russia advancing and Ukraine retreating. Russia successfully tested the intermediate-range ballistic missile Oreshnik when NATO relaxed restrictions on the use of long-range weapons in aid of Ukraine. The situation on the Russia-Ukraine battlefield is developing in a direction that is unfavorable to Europe. Therefore, NATO hopes to deter Russia by building up its military in Northern Europe.

NATO's strengthening of its military presence in the Nordic region will not only have a negative impact on the regional security situation but will also exacerbate divisions within NATO. On the one hand, NATO's tough stance and offensive military deployment in the Nordic region will inevitably provoke a reciprocal response from Russia. The confrontation between Russia and NATO will extend to the Nordic region and even spread to the Arctic region, which could further undermine international cooperation in the Arctic.

On the other hand, the continued strengthening of defense and security cooperation by the Nordic countries will gradually increase their voice and influence within NATO. The Nordic countries have always been tougher on Russia compared to France, Germany and other countries. It is foreseeable that with Trump's return to power, the differences between NATO member states may further increase.