By Guo Xiaobing
If the US-USSR space race during the Cold War marked the "First Space Age," and the post-Cold War period ushered in the "Second Space Age," then the current stage can be said to signify the world's entry into the "Third Space Age." Internationally, similar terminology has also been used by John E. Shaw, former deputy commander of the US Space Command, and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), among others. Despite differing perspectives, there is some consensus between Chinese and foreign strategic circles on the characteristics of the "Third Space Age."
First, the space landscape is becoming multipolar. During the Cold War, the primary contenders in the space race were the US and the USSR. Other space-capable countries such as the UK, France, and China were just beginning to show their capabilities in this respect but lagged far behind the two superpowers, while most other nations had virtually no capability to utilize space. In the "Second Space Age," the US pulled far ahead, Russia experienced a relative decline, and other countries gradually developed their space capabilities, leading to an emerging "one superpower, multiple strong players" dynamic in the space domain. In the "Third Space Age," the space landscape is becoming increasingly multipolar, with over one hundred countries now possessing their own satellites, and more than ten countries capable of launching satellites from their own territory. Space multipolarity allows more countries to benefit from space development and injects greater vitality into the advancement of space exploration. However, it also makes space increasingly crowded, exacerbating problems in such areas as frequency and orbit resource allocation, space traffic management, and space debris treatment.
As major power competition intensifies, the trend toward bloc formation in the space domain is becoming more pronounced. The US military has declared space as the central arena of great power competition, identifying Russia as a key competitor and China as the primary threat. To counter China and Russia, the US has sought to rally its allies to build a space coalition. This is somewhat different from the US space policy during the Cold War. During the confrontation between the US and the USSR, the US maintained strict secrecy on space matters and many of its allies openly opposed its efforts to militarize space. Currently, the US believes its space superiority has been eroded, leaving insufficient chances of success through unilateral efforts. As a result, it has shifted to seeking support from its allies while implementing technological blockades against its competitors.
Second, space is being weaponized and turned into a battlefield. Space is regarded as the "ultimate high ground" in military terms. In the "First Space Age" and the "Second Space Age," the military role of space primarily focused on operational support. For example, space-based assets were used for surveillance, reconnaissance, communication, early warning, and damage assessment to support land, sea, and air military operations. In the "Third Space Age," space itself is set to become a battlefield, with space forces operating as an independent military branch to conduct both offensive and defensive operations. This is why, in terms of military organization, the establishment of space forces has become a global trend today.
For space equipment, the risk of a space arms race has increased dramatically. Although the term of militarization of space came out long ago, many believe that the process of weaponization has not yet begun, as no country has deployed nuclear, kinetic, or laser weapons in orbit. However, this red line is about to be crossed, as the US has openly declared its intention to deploy anti-satellite weapons targeting Russia and China in 2025 . Moreover, the risk of space warfare has increased significantly. According to the US Defense Space Strategy , if deterrence in space fails, then the goal is to win a war that extends into space. To ensure combat readiness, the US military frequently conducts space warfare exercises such as the Schriever Wargame , the Global Sentinel , the Space Flag , the Black Skies , and the Red Skies . These exercises are highly combat-oriented, increasingly focusing on multi-domain coordination and leveraging overall synergy.
Third, space is industrialized. The development of commercial space industry was limited in the "First Space Age" and the "Second Space Age." In the "Third Space Age," space industry growth has accelerated and the competition for space resources has become more intense. For example, the development of large constellations of small satellites has made the highly valuable geostationary orbit increasingly competitive. Similarly, advancements in technology have turned previously inaccessible space mineral resources into potential sources of real wealth. Major space powers are planning to get the bigger slice of the pie in the burgeoning "space gold rush", which will likely become a source of conflict in the "Third Space Age."
However, from a sustainability and long-term perspective, space clearly should not become a place for "Star Wars." To address the new challenges of the "Third Space Age" and maintain peace and tranquility in space, the international community should integrate the fundamental principles of international space law with the new vision of security, establishing the basic logic and security mechanisms for space governance. The first is to maintain common security, support space freedom, and oppose space hegemony. The second is to maintain comprehensive security. This involves not only addressing the security risks arising from the peaceful use of space but also prioritizing the response to any attempt to turn outer space into a weapon or battlefield. The third is to maintain cooperation security by opposing alliances and confrontations, as well as resisting technology embargoes in the space sector. The fourth is to pursue sustainability by protecting the space environment. All parties should reach a consensus on these fundamental issues to ensure that space, under the conditions of the new era, becomes a domain of international cooperation and shared success, rather than a battleground for major-country competition.
(The author is a research fellow of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
Editor's note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
