By Yang Zhen
Recently, the Philippines has once again stirred up undercurrents in the South China Sea. On December 23, Philippine military chief Lieutenant-General Roy Galido announced plans to procure and deploy the US-made Typhon land-based Mid-Range Capability missile system, which faced strong opposition from China. The next day, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro issued another statement saying that the deployment of the Typhon by the US in the Philippines is legitimate and legal. The Philippines is a sovereign state, not any country's "doorstep." Any deployment and procurement of assets related to the Philippines' security and defense fall within its own sovereign prerogative and are not subject to any foreign veto.
This indicates that the Philippines' introduction of the Typhon system is an active decision rather than a passive acceptance. So, what is the Philippines' motivation?
The first is to increase its leverage in "bargaining" with China. Since stirring maritime disputes with China, the Philippines has never gained an upper hand in diplomatic, political, or military spheres. To reverse this situation, the Philippines aims to break the deadlock in the military sphere. The distance from China's Huangyan Dao to the Philippines' Luzon Island is approximately 240 kilometers, while the distance from Hainan Island to Luzon Island is about 900 kilometers. If the Typhon system was procured, the militarily-disadvantaged Philippines believes it would gain strike capability against Chinese territory, allowing it to bargain with China and even challenge China's authority.
The second is to deepen its geopolitical ambitions and align them closely with US strategic objectives. As a country positioned across the sea from China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, the Philippines holds a crucial geographical position and is an essential part of the US First Island Chain strategy. After gaining independence in the 1940s, the Philippine government began pursuing maritime expansion. Using the pretext of national security, the Philippines has illegally occupied certain reefs in China's Nansha Qundao through both military occupation and domestic legislation, with an ongoing aim to control the strategically significant and geographically critical Huangyan Dao. However, due to limited national strength and military power, these illegal actions have repeatedly failed. By allowing the US to deploy missile systems, the Philippines aims to draw the US into the region and link its maritime expansion ambitions with the strategic goal of the US to contain China.
The last is to counter domestic political adversaries. Since September, Philippine politics has entered a period of instability. Vice President Sara Zimmerman Duterte-Carpio publicly stated that she and President Ferdinand Romualdez Marcos Jr. have never been friends and confirmed that they would no longer cooperate. Their relationship subsequently broke down. On November 23, Sara Duterte hinted that she was threatened with assassination by Marcos Jr.. On November 25, former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte described the current government as "fragmented" and called on the Philippine military to intervene in the current political situation. The heightened tensions in Philippine politics are, in fact, a power struggle between two dominant political families. In this context, by introducing US missile systems into the Philippines, President Marcos Jr. aims to provoke a retaliatory response from China and subsequently shift the blame onto his political opponents, especially given the clear improvement in China-Philippines relations during the presidency of Rodrigo Duterte.
The Philippines' introduction of the Typhon would set a damaging precedent for the US deploying medium-range missile systems in neighboring countries around China. Since China's industrial output surpassed that of the U.S. in 2010, a series of containment strategies from Washington followed, first with the Rebalance to the Asia-Pacific Region and then the Indo-Pacific Strategy. All aimed at containing China, primarily through targeting the Chinese mainland by maritime means. The deployment of missile systems in the Philippines is aligned with America's containment strategy.
Looking ahead, similar measures are likely to cast a shadow over the future of China-Philippines relations. After President Marcos Jr. took office, relations between China and the Philippines have continued to deteriorate due to his provocative actions. The deployment of the missile system has further escalated the security confrontation between the two, marking a new stage of conflict in the bilateral relationship. The prospect of improving bilateral ties becomes increasingly gloomy.
In recent years, China has made significant advancements in missile defense capabilities. From a military standpoint, the deployment of the Typhon system holds limited significance. Such a move of Marcos Jr. under these circumstances is not good news for the Philippine people.
(The author is deputy director of the Center for Northeast Asia Studies of Shanghai University of Political Science and Law)
Editor's note: Originally published on China.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
