By Lyu Yunmou
On January 1, 2025, Poland took over the presidency of the Council of the European Union (EU) from Hungary for a term of six months. Poland has designated security as the top priority during its rotating presidency, adopting the slogan "Security, Europe!" It has pledged to safeguard Europe's security across multiple domains, including external, internal, informational, economic, and energy sectors, and solidify its position as one of the most important countries in the EU. Recently, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk explicitly stated that his top priority is to increase the defense spending of Europe.
Poland's emphasis on security is driven by multiple considerations. First, Poland shares borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Following the outbreak of the Ukraine crisis, Poland has effectively found itself on the front line of the confrontation between Russia and NATO, leading to an increased sense of insecurity. Recently, Poland has begun implementing the East Shield project, significantly enhancing its national defense infrastructure in regions bordering Russia and Belarus. The project aims to fully integrate into the Baltic Defense Line led by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. At the same time, Poland has been striving to become a top performer in defense within the EU. It is reported that the defense spending of Poland in 2024 exceeded 4% of its GDP, well above NATO's 2% standard. Poland plans to increase the figure to 4.7% by 2025. In the current wave of re-militarization of Europe, Poland's performance is particularly eye-catching.
Secondly, the US and NATO also intend to turn Poland into a frontline for deterrence against Russia. In January 2024, NATO launched the "Steadfast Defender 2024" military exercise, its largest military exercise since the Cold War. The "Dragon-24" exercise, led by Poland, took place in Poland, Lithuania, and the strategically important "Suwalki Gap," which is viewed by the Western military community as a critical area for countering Russia. By the end of 2024, the US established a new missile base in northern Poland, located just 250 kilometers from Kaliningrad.
In addition, both Germany and France have recently been mired in domestic crises, which has presented Poland with an opportunity to enhance its influence and voice within the EU.
However, for Poland, the utopia depicted by words is shattered by reality. On one hand, according to the regulations, the EU operates a decision-making mechanism of unanimity in the area of common foreign and security policy. Meanwhile, Slovakia and Hungary are clearly reluctant to see the EU implement more stringent measures against Russia.
On the other hand, Poland will face presidential elections in 2025. The current President, Andrzej Duda, has completed his second term and cannot run again. The most important task for Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in 2025 is to ensure that his preferred presidential candidate wins the election, thereby achieving full control of the political landscape. Therefore, Poland's policies and actions at the EU level will be more influenced by its domestic affairs.
At the same time, the return of Donald Trump has already become the biggest variable in the Ukraine crisis. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine issue, Trump's views, proposals, and plan to end the conflict will inevitably have a significant impact on the EU's stance on the conflict. It is even possible that Donald Trump may force the EU to accept his proposed arrangements for resolving the Ukraine crisis. The Ukraine crisis is approaching its third anniversary and the situation has escalated to the point where it must inevitably come to an end. The future direction of the crisis may soon become clear.
(The author is head of the European Security Project, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
