By Wang Jin
It has been over a month since the Syrian transitional government assumed power on December 10, 2024. Currently, the new Syrian regime is advancing its domestic and foreign agendas in parallel. Domestically, it has announced a series of plans and initiatives focusing on political transition and economic reform. Internationally, it has been engaging frequently with regional countries to seek support. Analysts believe that the future evolution of the Syrian situation will be influenced by numerous factors and the reconstruction process will face multiple challenges.
The prospects for political integration remain uncertain. Whether the transitional government can unite the fragmented political forces and balance the interests of various factions, ethnic groups, and sects in Syria will directly affect the prospects of the political transition. Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) has repeatedly emphasized opposition to sectarianism and advocated for peaceful coexistence among all factions. However, integrating the numerous anti-government armed groups in Syria remains a significant challenge for the transitional government. Locally, political forces in southern Syria, backed by Jordan, wield significant influence in the area. In the northeast, the Kurds hold a dominant position and are seeking a high-level autonomy. Meanwhile, on the western coast, some policies and measures introduced by the transitional government have sparked dissatisfaction among the elites of the Alawites . Although Syria's new leadership claims to establish an inclusive government, the differing interests of various factions and ethnic tensions will pose significant challenges to the reconstruction of the country.
Restoring economic development remains a daunting task. The prolonged civil war and external sanctions have severely impacted Syria's economic and social development. Statistics show that Syria's GDP has shrunk by more than half over the past decade. In 2024, the Syrian currency has accelerated its depreciation and the country's foreign exchange reserves are almost depleted. In response, the transitional government has recently introduced a series of measures, including launching a new round of financial and economic sector reforms, reopening the Naseeb border crossing between Syria and Jordan , and pushing for the restoration of production in Syria's oil sector. Analysts believe that the key to Syria's economic development lies in whether energy production can be restored and whether external sanctions can be lifted. Currently, there are still doubts within the international community regarding the nature of the HTS, especially as the group continues to harbor extremists from Europe, Central Asia, and North Africa. Therefore, it will probably take a long and arduous progress before the external sanctions disappear.
External power dynamics are significantly influencing the direction of Syria's reconstruction process. Recently, Syria's transitional government has actively engaged in diplomatic activities, holding mutual visits with some regional countries. Western countries and the EU have also sent delegations to establish contact with the new Syrian regime. The interests of these countries in Syria vary. The US is not only concerned with the safety of its military personnel stationed in Syria but also seeks to support the Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria. Turkey aims to repatriate millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey as soon as possible, while also seeking to curb the activities of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and its affiliated groups in Syria. On January 8, intense clashes erupted on the outskirts of Manbij in Aleppo province between Syrian Kurdish forces supported by the US and Syrian armed groups backed by Turkey. This highlights how internal factional divisions, compounded by external interventions, can easily escalate tensions and lead to new conflicts and instability.
It is clear that Syria's reconstruction involves multiple areas, including politics, economy, and diplomacy, with each domain influencing the others. With internal factional conflicts and external foreign interventions at play, the process of domestic reconciliation and national reconstruction in Syria will not be a smooth path.
