By Liu Zhongmin

Qatar, Egypt, and the US issued a joint statement on the evening of January 15, local time, announcing that Israel and the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) had reached an agreement on a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the exchange of detainees.

According to the statement, the agreement aims to achieve a permanent ceasefire and restore peace in the Gaza Strip. The ceasefire agreement will be implemented in stages, including provisions for the ceasefire, the exchange of detainees, the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, the return of displaced residents to their homes in northern Gaza, and the increase of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.

Since the outbreak of the latest round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict over fifteen months ago, Israel and Hamas have held multiple rounds of negotiations. Apart from facilitating a brief ceasefire and the release of some detainees in November 2023, these talks have failed to reach a permanent ceasefire agreement. Efforts at the UN Security Council to secure a ceasefire and end the fighting have also yielded little result.

While the Palestinian side bears heavy losses, Israel also faces a severe internal and external crisis. The reaching of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas undoubtedly offers a faint glimmer of peace amid the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East at the beginning of 2025. However, both from the perspective that the agreement itself has yet to address the many complex issues arising from the latest round of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and from the standpoint of the core issues left by the long-standing conflict between the two sides, the outlook for the Palestinian issue remains bleak. This is particularly true considering Israel's military, security, and psychological advantages gained during the new round of conflict as well as the potential policy direction of a return of Donald Trump to the White House. The prospect of a lasting and stable peace in the Middle East remains an elusive luxury.

As the article concludes, a new report emerged stating that the Israeli Prime Minister's Office issued a statement claiming that Hamas had violated certain provisions of the agreement reached between Israel and the relevant mediators. Hamas was said to have attempted to extort concessions from Israel at the last moment before the ceasefire. The Israeli government will not hold a meeting to vote on the ceasefire agreement until it receives notification from the relevant mediators confirming that Hamas has accepted all the terms of the ceasefire. Peace has already been overshadowed by uncertainty before the ink dried on the ceasefire agreement.

In the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, the first phase of the ceasefire and the partial exchange of hostages are relatively straightforward and detailed. However, the second and third phases, which involve Israel's full withdrawal from Gaza and the future reconstruction plans for Gaza, remain vague and unclear. Although the current agreement is a compromise to avoid difficult issues, it is clearly deficient in several respects.

On one hand, the agreement does not address the issue of Hamas' status, yet, as the main objective of the attack of Israel on Gaza, the elimination of Hamas and the demilitarization of Gaza remain Israel's key goals. In the future implementation of the agreement, any actions by Hamas that Israel perceives as a threat could provoke retaliation and even lead to the collapse of the agreement and a resurgence of conflict. Israel may also demand the disbandment of Hamas and its armed forces, which could trigger a backlash from Hamas, reignite hostilities, and hinder the progress of the agreement.

On the other hand, it does not address the core issue of Gaza reconstruction. The future reconstruction of Gaza is closely tied to the restructuring of Palestinian power. It remains uncertain whether the reconstruction will be led by Israel, managed by the Palestinian National Authority, or overseen by an international mechanism. It is foreseeable that the political status of Gaza, the role of Hamas in Gaza, and the relationships between Israel, Hamas, and the Palestinian National Authority in Gaza will all become core issues influencing Gaza's reconstruction. These will undoubtedly be focal points of the power struggle among the three sides. However, Israel will undoubtedly maintain a dominant military and security position, which will make the reconstruction of Gaza extremely challenging.

The Israeli-Palestinian policy under Donald Trump's administration will likely place Palestine in an even more disadvantageous position. During the first term of Donald Trump, US policy on the Israeli-Palestinian issue experienced a significant historical setback. The most notable manifestation was the policy that clearly favored Israel, which severely undermined and even overturned the historical foundation for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue, particularly within the UN Security Council.

Looking ahead to Donald Trump's second term from the policy tone of his first term, his campaign pledges, and personnel appointments, it is clear that he will continue to implement a policy that favors Israel and push forward with the "Deal of the Century" plan according to new changes of the situation in the Middle East.

Donald Trump did not hide his support for Israel during his campaign. On September 19, 2024, Donald Trump delivered a speech in Washington to the Israeli-American Council. He promised to make Israel great again and pledged to be Israel's "defender" and "protector." He also emphasized that the US-Israel bond is strong and enduring, but if he wins the election, it will be stronger and closer than ever before.

In conclusion, whether it is the deficiencies within the ceasefire agreement, or the foreseeable US favoritism toward Israel, all of these factors will place Palestine in an even more disadvantaged position. Even if peace is achieved in Gaza, it will be an unjust, imbalanced, and distorted one. Additionally, the continuation of the conflict between the Houthi forces and the US-Israel alliance, along with the deep-rooted tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran, are also key factors that constrain the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian issue.

(The author is a professor at the Middle East Studies Institute of Shanghai International Studies University.)

Editor's note: Originally published on thepaper.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.