By Shu Meng
Israel and Hamas reached a ceasefire agreement in Gaza on January 15. The agreement covers key clauses such as a phased ceasefire, prisoner exchange, withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and increased humanitarian aid. This round of the Palestine-Israel conflict has lasted for more than 15 months since it broke out on October 7, 2023, causing devastating consequences to both sides. The continuous spillover of the conflict has not only impacted the regional political landscape, but also made the situation in the Middle East more complicated.
The ceasefire agreement was finally reached after prolonged and arduous negotiations. It has temporarily eased the tense standoff between Israel and Hamas. However, while the agreement has pressed the "pause button" on this round of intense conflict, its potential to bring lasting peace to the region remains uncertain.
Like many previous peace agreements between Palestine and Israel, the new agreement also has many limitations. Some clauses of the agreement are vaguely worded, which may cause disputes during implementation. The agreement lacks an effective follow-up guarantee mechanism, and there are no detailed implementation steps or effective supervision measures for the withdrawal plan and the reconstruction plan. If the two sides disagree on key issues such as the withdrawal time and reconstruction responsibilities, the agreement will easily fall into a deadlock and the ceasefire will be difficult to maintain.
After more than a year of conflict, Palestinian sentiment of resistance to Israeli occupation has become stronger. Armed resistance is no longer the exclusive stance of Hamas and other Islamist organizations but has become a pressing demand shared by many Palestinians. Israel's prolonged occupation and expansion have continued to shrink the living space of Palestinians, a situation the ceasefire agreement has failed to address. Public anger continues to accumulate after the ceasefire, which will become a potential fuse for the next conflict.
For Israeli people, the conflict has significantly diminished their sense of security for themselves and the country. Due to widespread concern about potential Palestinian attacks, many Israelis supported more hardline government policies toward Palestine including preemptive actions and tit for tat actions. However, such strategies failed to address the root causes of the Palestine-Israel conflict. Instead, in the complex geopolitical environment, they are likely to escalate the scale of the conflict. Moreover, these hardline policies could cause broader international condemnation, exacerbate Israel's isolation in the region, increase external security threats and drag Israel into a vicious cycle of insecurity.
For the Middle East, the complexity of the regional situation remains significant. After Donald Trump takes office, the US will most likely continue its Middle East policy guided by its interests and increase its favoritism towards Israel. This will further marginalize the Palestinian issue and weaken Palestine's voice on the international stage. In this context, Palestinians are likely to resume resistance or adopt more radical actions to assert their rights.
Therefore, the essence of the current Palestine-Israel ceasefire agreement is merely a temporary suspension of the conflict. In the process of formulating and reaching this agreement, the fundamental demands of the Palestinian people for sovereignty, independence and reasonable living space were not fully considered, nor were the deep-rooted problems behind the conflict fundamentally resolved. The roots of the conflict are extensive and complex, involving intertwined territorial, ethnic, and religious tensions. Achieving lasting peace in the region is no easy task.
The two sides must engage in sincere dialogue on an equal footing and make reasonable and substantive concessions. Meanwhile, the international community must uphold a fair and objective stance, actively carry out mediation and conciliation work, and build a bridge of communication between the two sides. Simply relying on the ceasefire agreement while ignoring deeper issues will only bring back the conflict. The ceasefire agreement's role is limited to providing a brief truce, and the goal of lasting peace remains a long and arduous journey.
(The author is an assistant researcher at the Middle East Studies Institute, Shanghai International Studies University.)
Editor's note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
