By Wang Limeng and Li Zhe
Recently, Canadian Ambassador to the Philippines David Hartman stated that Canada and the Philippines are close to finalizing a Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA). Under the agreement, one country can deploy military forces temporarily on the territory of the other. This marks the latest move in their growing ties and is likely to further impact the security and stability of the region. However, some argue that, given various factors, even if the agreement is formally signed, its significance may be more symbolic than practical.
Since Donald Trump took office, Canada's geopolitical environment has continuously worsened. The announcement of the agreement at this moment demonstrates Canada's so-called diplomatic initiative, which, to some extent, subtly reflects an intention to divert domestic political pressure and internal conflicts. However, given Canada's limited military capabilities, it is unlikely to play a significant military role in the Asia-Pacific region through this agreement, so the intervention could only be a symbolic gesture. In fact, this move by the Trudeau government is largely aimed at signaling its alignment with the US "Indo-Pacific strategy", attempting to assert its presence within the US-led geopolitical framework. After all, Canada is heavily reliant on the US for its national defense and security.
The intentions of the Philippines are equally evident. On one hand, the Philippines seeks to introduce external military forces, such as Canada, to bolster its position in regional disputes. On the other hand, it aims to secure security guarantees by engaging in military cooperation with members of the Five Eyes alliance and the Quad, hoping to strengthen its ties with the US and increase its leverage in negotiations with Washington. Meanwhile, the Marcos administration seems to have an ulterior motive of fulfilling the demands of certain domestic political factions, so as to boost its political status and support.
The Philippines' attempt to secure a "shield" by introducing external military forces can be likened to inviting a wolf into the house. In recent years, the Philippines has signed VFAs with the US and Australia, reached a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) with Japan in July last year to facilitate mutual military visits and joint exercises, and is now set to sign a VFA with Canada. On the surface, these agreements seem to be bilateral, but in reality, they allow external military forces to station troops in the Philippines unilaterally. The Philippines not only fails to gain substantial military protection but also risks bringing more uncertainty to regional security and stability.
If this agreement is ultimately signed, it will have a multifaceted negative impact on regional security and stability, regional multilateral cooperation mechanisms, and major-country relationships. In recent years, the Philippines has frequently invited external powers and hosted or participated in various military exercises. As an ASEAN member, it has violated the ASEAN Charter's provision to resolve disputes through peaceful means, which risks escalating strategic competition and confrontation between major powers, further complicating the South China Sea issue. This self-destructive behavior by the Philippines should be halted immediately, or it will ultimately backfire and harm its own interests.
(The author is from the PLA Academy of Military Sciences)
