By Chen Yang
The newly-appointed US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth made statements on NATO and European security during his visit to Europe on the third anniversary of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict. As US-Russia talks bypass Europe and transatlantic relations grow colder, NATO, the military organization bridging US-European security cooperation, faces a critical turning point.
The first issue is the apportionment of military expenditure between the US and Europe. Under continuous pressure from the US, especially forced by the severe security situation since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the military expenditure of NATO's European member states has increased significantly. By 2024, 23 out of NATO's 32 member states have met or exceeded the target of spending two percent of their GDP on defense. However, in the eyes of the US, this is still not enough to address the imbalance in military spending between Europe and the US, and Europe, according to the US, has yet to fully assume its security responsibilities.
According to estimates by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the US military spending in 2024 reached $968 billion while European NATO members collectively spent $457 billion, less than half the US total. In response, Hegseth has repeatedly asserted that the US will "no longer tolerate an unbalanced relationship." However, many European nations argue that rapidly increasing defense spending cannot be achieved overnight. If European countries were to follow Trump's military spending target of five percent of GDP, they would face even more severe financial burdens and political risks.
As a military alliance, NATO was criticized for its sluggish response to the Crimean crisis, which was seen by the US and other Western nations as a humiliation. There were also frequent disagreements and conflicts within NATO. However, the full-scale outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has brought NATO back to life. After Trump's victory, ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict quickly became a hot topic for US and Europe. How NATO can provide Ukraine with reliable and continuous security without accepting it as a member has emerged as a new and urgent issue. In this regard, Hegseth made it clear that NATO's European member states need to take the lead in providing future aid to Ukraine, and the US troops will not enter Ukraine to provide a security guarantee. It is evident that, from the perspective of the current US administration, Europeans need to rely on their own military capabilities to build their security shield. However, if Europeans thus strengthen their military capabilities and establish an independent European defense force, then NATO's dominant role in the European security architecture could be weakened or even marginalized.
As the key link in US-Europe defense cooperation, NATO's current predicament fundamentally stems from deep fractures in US-Europe relations and the disintegration of mutual trust. More crucially, Europeans have increasingly recognized that the power imbalance between the US and Europe, as well as their diverging strategic priorities, are obvious. After "America First" became the guiding principle of the US political, economic and diplomatic policy, it would be extremely difficult to restore US-EU relations to the previous alliance relationship of equality and mutual assistance.
(The author is the director of the Institute of European Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
Editor's Note: Originally published on opinion.huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
