On February 20, US Marines stationed in Okinawa load ammunition into the cargo hold of a Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey.
By Liu Cheng
Recently, the US Marine Corps disclosed updates on troop adjustments in Okinawa, Japan, officially confirming for the first time that personnel withdrawals and unit formations are underway. Analysts suggest that the realignment of US forces in Okinawa is driven by a complex political and diplomatic backdrop and reflects broader shifts in Washington's force posture across the Indo-Pacific.
Launching force relocation plan
Currently, the US Marine Corps maintains the III Marine Expeditionary Force (III MEF) in Okinawa, with a total of 18,000 personnel.
According to the US military's deployment plan, 5,000 Marines will be relocated from Okinawa to Guam, including 1,300 permanently stationed at Camp Blaz and 3,700 on a rotational basis. Besides, 2,700 personnel will be transferred to Hawaii, 800 personnel will return to US mainland bases, and another 1,300 personnel will be rotationally deployed to Australia to bolster US forces there. Overall, the number of US Marines stationed in Okinawa will be reduced to fewer than 9,000, a downsizing of more than 50%.
Concealing strategic intentions
Analysts suggest that the relocation of US forces from Okinawa to Guam and the subsequent military adjustments reveals multiple strategic considerations.
It aims to enhance coordination between inner and outer forces. According to foreign media reports, the adjustments of the US Marine Corps in Okinawa aim to trim down while strengthening capabilities. Under US military planning, the Marines stationed in Okinawa will serve as inner forces in future battlefield confrontations. They will be equipped with MQ-9A drones, AN/TPS-80 radars, new amphibious combat vehicles, and small unmanned surface vessels, forming "expeditionary advanced base" to conduct forward sea-control and blockade operations. The forces relocating to Guam will form the 4th Marine Littoral Regiment, which was previously part of the Marine Littoral Regiment in Hawaii, where it regularly undertook forward deployment missions. These forces will constitute the outer troops, operating in coordination with the Okinawa-based garrison.
It also aims to compete for a share of the new fiscal year defense budget. Some analysts pointed out that although US President Donald Trump has announced defense budget cuts, military spending allocated to the Indo-Pacific region remains high with a slight increase. Against this backdrop, the Marine Corps troop adjustment plan may also be an attempt to secure a share of the budget.
Coordinating multi-regional deployment
Japan, Australia, and other countries have responded positively to US troop adjustments in the Indo-Pacific region. According to Japanese media, the restructuring of US Marine Corps forces in Okinawa is not a reduction in strength but rather a strategic shift aimed at reinforcing the US-Japan alliance as the central axis while extending influence over allied countries across the Indo-Pacific. This reflects a broader effort to consolidate camp confrontation.
Beyond Japan, the US is also adjusting its military presence in the ROK, the Philippines, Australia, and other countries. For instance, the US Air Force has redeployed F-22 and F-35 fighter jets across multiple locations in the Western Pacific. These actions are interconnected. They not only rely on the existing military presence to strengthen regional influence through mobility but also use troop deployments to bind allies to the same strategic objectives. Such moves are likely to introduce more uncertainty into regional security.
