By Zhao Junjie
The transatlantic relations have deteriorated rapidly recently. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly stressed at major diplomatic events that the US has no intention of getting too deeply involved in European matters and does not want to continue making firm commitments to European security.
Against this backdrop, France, which has long advocated for "European strategic autonomy," sees an opportunity. In addition to strongly supporting the establishment of a "European army," French President Emmanuel Macron aims to push European "strategic military capabilities" even further. Germany's new Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, had already stated during his election campaign that Germany needs to discuss "nuclear sharing" with Europe's two nuclear powers, the UK and France. It can be said that building and promoting a "strategic protective umbrella" for Europe's security has become a key consensus between France and Germany.
However, the construction of a European "strategic protective umbrella" faces unprecedented difficulties. On the one hand, Europe must have a sufficiently deterrent nuclear strike capability. On the other hand, it must also maintain a large-scale conventional military force. Both are indispensable, yet Europe currently lacks both.
First, only the UK and France are nuclear-armed countries in Europe. However, the number of their nuclear warheads and their delivery capabilities are quite limited. Additionally, Europe still relies on the US for strategic defense, and thus cannot establish a strong strategic deterrent.
Second, Europe's conventional armed forces also have obvious shortcomings. According to the Military Balance 2025 report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, the total number of military personnel across European countries reaches 1.97 million. However, only a few nations, such as France, Germany, Italy, and Poland, have hundreds of thousands of troops capable of playing a leading role in a potential "European Army." Europe's conventional armed forces urgently need to be expanded in size and upgraded in weapons and equipment. This requires substantial capital and greater industrial capacity. However, the major European countries, led by France and Germany, are generally facing challenges such as economic contraction, expanding fiscal deficits, and deindustrialization.
Third, European countries hold differing views on the establishment of a "strategic protective umbrella." The core of the "strategic umbrella" concept lies in the two nuclear-armed countries, the UK and France, but these two countries have significant differences in their core interests in Europe. The UK has always adopted an "offshore balancing" strategy regarding European affairs, while Europe is gradually diverging from the new US administration. Nevertheless, the "special relationship" between the UK and the US will remain intact, so the UK's genuine willingness to participate in Europe's "strategic protective umbrella" remains to be seen. Meanwhile, some other European countries hope to improve relations with Russia, while others remain reluctant to abandon the security guarantees provided by the US.
The idea of establishing an independent "strategic protective umbrella" for Europe may seem hasty, but it is also understandable. Once Europe has its own "strategic umbrella", it could break away from the US-led NATO and truly achieve strategic autonomy. Although Europe still faces many challenges in independently propping up the "strategic umbrella", it is certain that a Europe with strategic autonomy would contribute positive factors to its own security and the stability of the international order.
(The author is a researcher at the Institute of European Studies of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)
Editor's Note: Originally published on opinion.huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
