By Zhang Jiadong

Reports indicate that US President Donald Trump is considering making significant changes to its NATO policy. Will the US withdraw from NATO? Does the US President have the authority to decide on a NATO exit?

The US Constitution does not clearly outline the process for withdrawing from international treaties and the NATO treaty itself contains no provisions for unilateral withdrawal by the US. In 2019, the US Congress passed the NATO Support Act, explicitly prohibiting the President from withdrawing the US from NATO. It is also stipulated in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) signed by Joe Biden in 2023 that withdrawing from NATO requires approval from two-thirds of the Senate or authorization through an act passed by Congress. Therefore, the US President cannot unilaterally decide to withdraw the country from NATO. Legally, the President must either secure the support of two-thirds of the Senate or have both chambers of Congress pass new legislation to terminate the treaty. Politically, NATO remains a cornerstone of the US global strategy, and withdrawing would trigger significant resistance both domestically and internationally.

So why do some voices within the US government keep bringing this up? The real intention isn't to push for an actual US exit from NATO but to pressure European allies. Washington hopes European members of NATO shoulder more of the defense burden rather than asymmetrically relying on the US.

NATO is a product of the Cold War and, logically, should have ended when the Cold War did. Although NATO wasn't dissolved, its relevance and necessity have declined significantly after the Cold War. While NATO has expanded geographically, its defense budgets, military capabilities, and internal cohesion have noticeably weakened.

The weakening and structural loosening of NATO after the Cold War stem mainly from two factors. The first is the decline of its imagined adversary. Different from the Soviet Union, Russia lacks the strength to provide NATO with sufficient external cohesion and momentum for military buildup. The second is the loss of shared security priorities between the US and Europe.

During the Cold War, the US and Europe both saw the Soviet Union as the primary threat. Now, Europe focuses on Russia, while the US pivots to countering China. From the perspective of the US politicians, NATO, as a transatlantic alliance, cannot address the US-China rivalry across the Pacific. Instead, it drains US resources on a strategically secondary front.

Simply put, America's shift in alliance policy upends the security free-ride European nations have enjoyed for decades, pushing NATO's European members to transition from crisis management to collective defense. This shift will lead to a more balanced security policy between the US and its European allies. As a result, NATO is likely to remain necessary and viable, yet it may evolve from a US-centric model to a new dual-center structure shared by the US and Europe.

(The author is a professor at the Center for American Studies, Fudan University.)

Editor's Note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.