By Shi Guannan
In February 2025, US President Donald Trump said that there is no reason to spend nearly USD 1 trillion on the military and hoped that China, the US, and Russia can reach an agreement to cut their defense budgets by half. Less than two months after making that statement, Trump proudly announced at a press conference that the upcoming US defense budget would be close to USD 1 trillion. If realized, this would become the highest defense spending in US history.
The US defense budget has risen rapidly, increasing from approximately USD 560 billion in fiscal year 2015 to nearly USD 900 billion in fiscal year 2025. It is just a matter of time to surpass the USD 1 trillion mark. Despite the Trump administration's widespread cuts to government employees and its calls to reduce overall spending, it insisted on increasing the defense budget in its very first year, even at the risk of expanding the fiscal deficit. This highlights the strategic considerations and policy priorities of the US.
First, the Trump administration has a deep sense of insecurity, still believes in military power and the concept of absolute security, and wants to maintain the US' overwhelming military superiority over other nations. Trump declared that there are "many bad actors" in the world, and even as the US seeks to cut costs, it must still build up the military and strengthen itself. One major focus of the increased military budget is enhancing the US defense industry and accelerating the modernization of the country's military equipment. For instance, the Trump administration announced in March that Boeing had been selected to lead the development of the sixth-generation fighter jet program, the F-47. The project is expected to cost about USD 20 billion and is scheduled to be completed by 2029.
Second, the Trump administration aims to set an example to its allies and partners to call on and pressure them to significantly increase their military spending. In January 2025, Trump criticized other NATO countries for contributing too little to "US protection," urging European nations to raise their defense spending from the current two percent target to a much higher five percent. Trump asserted that they can afford it. Currently, no NATO member has met this new threshold, and it is not easy to achieve it. Some European media pointed out that this would require Europe to come up with an additional hundreds of billions of dollars, an act regarded as politically and economically impossible.
Third, the Trump administration seeks to benefit its supporters and stakeholders. Defense spending has long been a breeding ground for misuse of public funds and corruption involving US defense institutions and private contractors. Palantir, a company that has recently made a name for itself in military AI, and its founder Peter Thiel, have close ties with the Trump administration. Thiel was a staunch supporter of Trump during the 2016 election, and several of his partners and associates have landed key roles in the Trump administration. Palantir also relies on US government contracts for more than half of its revenue. According to former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense Michael Horowitz, the Pentagon has already launched several new AI initiatives and investments, with AI development as a priority.
However, wanton use of force does not necessarily maintain US hegemony or bring security to it. According to Brown University, the US has spent over USD 8 trillion on foreign wars since the 9/11 attacks, resulting in hundreds of thousands of civilian deaths, regional instability, and severe physical and psychological harm to hundreds of thousands of US soldiers. The Trump administration must seriously consider whether a foreign policy that emphasizes military priority and blindly increases the defense budget can really make America great again, given that the US national debt has exceeded USD 36 trillion.
(The author is an assistant research fellow at the Institute of American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.)
Editor's Note: Originally published on china.com.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
