By Peng Nian
The annual US-Philippines Balikatan joint military exercise is once again underway from April 21 to May 9. Bloomberg touted it as a "rehearsal" for Manila's defense amid ongoing tensions with China.
Since June 2022, the scale of the Balikatan has expanded rapidly, with upgraded weapon systems and increasingly explicit targets. Meanwhile, the US and the Philippines have sought to bring more allies and partners on board, attempting to transform the exercise into a multilateral military drill centered on the South China Sea. This year, Australia and Japan have stepped out from behind the scenes to join openly, marking the transformation of Balikatan into a multilateral military drill to flex muscles by the US, the Philippines, and their allies.
Since the Marcos administration took office, the locations of the US-Philippines Balikatan exercise have gradually shifted closer to the Taiwan Strait, with the drills increasingly pointing to potential joint intervention in the region. This year's Balikatan exercise not only continued as usual in northern Luzon but also extended further north to the Batan Islands, which lie even closer to China's Taiwan region. Y'Ami Island, the northernmost point of the islands, is just 142 kilometers from Taiwan's main island and only 99 kilometers from Orchid Island, closer than it is to Luzon itself.
For this reason, the exercise will see the US military airlift several anti-ship missile launchers from northern Luzon to multiple islands in the Batanes. Notably, the US will also deploy the Navy/Marine Corps Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System (NMESIS) for the first time during the drill, providing the Philippines with aerial and maritime missile defense and boosting joint maritime strike and deterrence capabilities in waters surrounding the Taiwan Strait. The move again confirms that the US and the Philippines are working to build a more integrated air, land, and sea operational system with a clear focus on the Taiwan Strait.
Despite claiming to defend the Philippines, the US and the Philippines are deliberately forging a military alliance in an attempt to contain China. Such a scheme is doomed to fail.
Firstly, the so-called security commitment of Washington is far from reliable. As early as the start of Donald Trump's presidency, he repeatedly criticized allies for free-riding on US security guarantees and pressed them to shoulder the costs of hosting American troops and ramp up their own military spending. Even Japan, one of the closest allies of the US, was not spared, so how could the Philippines expect to be an exception?
Secondly, the military provocations by the US and the Philippines have lost their deterrent effect in the face of China's firm countermeasures. Backed by the US military, the Philippines has repeatedly stirred up trouble in the South China Sea, but every attempt has been resolutely pushed back by China.
Thirdly, the US-Philippines joint exercises have already provoked discontent among neighbouring countries, leaving the two increasingly isolated in the region. Such is the law that an unjust cause finds meagre support. At a time when regional nations are calling for solidarity and development, Washington and Manila's insistence on confrontation and disruption goes against the prevailing tide and is bound to be rejected.
In the face of growing global instability, their efforts to stage large-scale drills and hype up threats will only undermine regional peace and risk provoking conflict. Rather than bolstering its security, the Philippines may find itself mired in deeper danger.
(The author is a research fellow of the Research Center for Indian Ocean Island Countries of South China University of Technology.)
Editor's Note: Originally published on huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
