By Guo Xiaobing

The world today is in the midst of intertwined and turmoil international situation, and profound changes unseen in a century are unfolding at a faster pace. The same holds true in the field of arms control, where the world is witnessing the most dramatic upheaval since the end of the Cold War over three decades ago.

First, global strategic stability is facing mounting challenges. The frequent outbreak of geopolitical crises has sharply heightened the risk of nuclear conflict. During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, NATO and Russia have repeatedly sent out signals of nuclear deterrence in their confrontation. In the latest round of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, an Israeli official even made the shocking claim that nuclear weapons could be used in Gaza. In a recent clash between India and Pakistan, India targeted the Nur Khan Airbase, located just a few kilometers from Pakistan's nuclear weapons management forces, posing an enormous risk of potential nuclear escalation. These developments mark the gravest nuclear tensions since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962.

In the realm of the arms race, new destabilizing factors have continued to emerge, including the Golden Dome missile defense system, the proliferation of intermediate-range missiles, the spread of nuclear materials, and the weaponization of outer space. The Golden Dome missile defense system of the US warrants particular attention, as its missile interception targets have been significantly expanded to include both China and Russia. If the US becomes convinced that the Golden Dome system can fully safeguard its homeland, it may be more inclined to launch a preemptive nuclear strike. Second, the development of space-based interceptors is fueling an arms race in outer space. Given the extremely short time window for boost-phase interception using such interceptors, the US is likely to assign interception decisions to artificial intelligence (AI). This suggests that strategic competition in the nuclear and missile domain is extending further into the realm of AI.

On intermediate-range missiles, the US has been vigorously developing ground-based intermediate-range missile systems since its withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty) in 2019. Last year, the US military began deploying the Typhon Mid-Range Capability missile system in the Philippines and has been hyping plans to test-fire long-range missiles in Australia. In terms of nuclear proliferation, existing regional nuclear proliferation issues remain unresolved, while the so-called "friendly nuclear proliferation" has been put on the table. Through the AUKUS nuclear submarine cooperation, the US is providing Australia with eight nuclear-powered submarines. High-ranking officials of the Pentagon have also declared that Japan and South Korea could be allowed to develop nuclear weapons if necessary.

Secondly, existing arms control mechanisms have partially collapsed. The US has undergone a fundamental shift in its assessment of the global situation, concluding that the arms control system established under the bipolar framework no longer suits the current situation. Consequently, US arms control policies have seen drastic adjustments. In addition to withdrawing from the INF Treaty, the Treaty on Open Skies, and the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) has also essentially become inactive. What the US has abolished is not merely bilateral disarmament treaties, nor just the process of bilateral disarmament. It has also severely undermined the long-standing arms control principle of "prioritizing the two nuclear superpowers." This has led to a partial collapse of the international nuclear arms control architecture, primarily reflected in the breakdown of the bilateral nuclear disarmament framework between the US and Russia.

At a time when global strategic stability is facing mounting turbulence and challenges, China, as a responsible major country, upholds a just and impartial position and has made important contributions to safeguarding world peace and stability. China stresses the need to give equal importance to both national and collective security in addressing international security challenges and has articulated clear goals and guiding principles for upholding global strategic stability. China has put forward the Global Security Initiative, advocating the concept of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security. 

China's arms control policy and practices have also made a strong contribution to global strategic stability. China follows a self-defensive nuclear strategy, with nuclear forces always kept at the minimum level required to safeguard national security, refraining from participating in any arms race. China upholds the principle of no-first-use of nuclear weapons and pledges unconditionally not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states or nuclear-weapon-free zones. China also advocates that nuclear-weapon states conclude a treaty on no first use of nuclear weapons, or make political commitments to that effect. China has pushed for the conclusion of a joint statement among the five nuclear-weapon states, reaffirming that "a nuclear war cannot be won, and must never be fought." Since last August, China has served as the coordinator among the five nuclear-weapon states to promote dialogue on nuclear policies and enhance mutual trust. China has also proposed the conclusion of an international legal instrument on negative security assurances to safeguard the security interests of non-nuclear-weapon states. 

At a time when geopolitical crises are erupting across the globe, the continued peace and stability of the Asia-Pacific region owes much to China's consistent efforts, together with regional countries, to safeguard common security and pursue shared peace and prosperity. On this basis, China has continued to inject stability and predictability into a volatile and uncertain world by enhancing its mediation efforts and contributing more international public goods, firmly upholding its role as a pillar of global strategic stability.

(The author is a research professor of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations)

Editor's Note: Originally published on opinion.huanqiu.com, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.