By Yu Lan
On July 19 local time, sources revealed that the latest round of Gaza ceasefire talks currently underway in Doha, Qatar, could yield an agreement within two weeks. However, on July 20, the Israeli military announced it was expanding evacuation orders for northern Gaza and had submitted several follow-up operational plans targeting Hamas to the Israeli government. Will Gaza see peace or continued conflict? Military analyst Teng Jianqun believes that even if this round of talks makes progress, it will be difficult to deliver lasting peace for Gaza.
He pointed out that there are two main factors behind this opportunity for talks. First, Qatar and Egypt have been working hard to find a solution that balances the demands of both Hamas and Israel. Second, Israel's pledge to withdraw troops from the Morag Corridor would significantly ease restrictions on the movements of Hamas in southern Gaza.
Israel's pullback is tied to the current situation in Gaza, as its forces are extremely fatigued. Meanwhile, Israel is facing internal changes, such as divisions within the ruling coalition, creating a need for a pause to regroup. Hamas likewise needs a breathing space. Reaching a ceasefire agreement within two weeks is clearly more of a temporary arrangement than a lasting peace.
When various mediators remain cautiously optimistic about the negotiations, on July 20 local time, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir stated that the military has submitted several follow-up operational plans to the Israeli government targeting Hamas. These plans are intended to maintain pressure and force Hamas to collapse through sustained offensives.
According to Teng, Israel's three main objectives for its operations against Hamas have yet to be fully achieved from the perspective of Benjamin Netanyahu. At present, Hamas still holds Israeli civilian detainees; establishing effective control over the Gaza Strip remains operationally unattainable; and neither the use of regular forces nor covert special operations has eradicated the entrenched presence of Hamas in Gaza. For these reasons, the Netanyahu government is certain to continue the conflict.
On July 20 local time, the IDF issued a new warning, calling on Palestinian civilians in the southwestern area of Deir al-Balah, in central Gaza, to immediately evacuate to the coastal area of al-Mawasi for shelter. Under the current battlefield situation, what bargaining chips does Hamas still hold?
According to Teng, although Hamas has been weakened, it remains a thorny challenge for Israel. For more than 20 months of conflict, the political and organizational structures of Hamas have suffered severe damage, and its external support has declined significantly. At present, Hamas can only carry out dispersed resistance operations, but it remains one of the more active anti-Israel armed groups in the Gaza Strip. For Israel, eliminating Hamas remains its ultimate goal. In my opinion, there will certainly be further maneuvering between the two sides.
Regarding the overall trajectory of the Gaza situation and the future intensity of the battlefield, Teng said that, for Israel, either out of domestic or foreign policy considerations, the Netanyahu government will surely use the external environment to intervene in regional ceasefire or negotiation processes. At the same time, domestically, Netanyahu must ensure the consolidation of his ruling coalition.
As for the trend of the battlefield, large-scale clashes are unlikely to occur. However, in areas such as Gaza City in the northern Gaza Strip and Khan Younis and Rafah in the southern area, he held that sporadic conflicts will further intensify. Nevertheless, attempting to resolve the Gaza issue through massacre is a dead-end.
Editor's Note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
