By Song Bo
It is reported that Japan and the EU plan to sign an agreement at a leaders' summit that will be held on July 23 to jointly build a large-scale satellite network, aiming to reduce their technological dependence on US companies such as SpaceX. Why do Japan and the EU choose to join forces at this point? What is the biggest challenge facing this project?
As the current US administration vigorously advances its "America First" policy, international cooperation in the space sector has become increasingly uncertain. Although Japan and most EU member states are allies of the US, their growing overreliance on the US in national security-related information technology has revealed significant potential risks. According to military observer Shao Yongling, to avoid being constrained by others in critical technologies, US allies such as Japan and the EU are accelerating independent development. This trend reflects their strategic intention to reduce dependence on the US, pursue technological autonomy, and strengthen defense self-reliance.
Shao pointed out that Donald Trump has adopted a tough stance toward US allies since taking office. He has threatened to withdraw from NATO, declared that the US would no longer shield allies who fail to meet defense spending targets, and demanded that NATO members raise defense spending to 5% of GDP. He has also repeatedly voiced views on the Russia-Ukraine conflict that run counter to Europe's position, showing little regard for Europe's concerns. The same approach extends to Asia as well. This "America First" posture has deepened insecurity among US allies and driven them to seek greater defense and technological autonomy. The joint effort by Europe and Japan to build a large-scale low Earth orbit satellite constellation is a typical example of moves to break away from dependence on the US. Similar moves toward greater autonomy will likely increase in the future.
As for the reason for Japan and the EU to jointly build a satellite network, Shao noted that both of them face certain limitations in funding and technology, making a cooperative approach the more efficient and feasible option. By pooling resources, they can reduce development costs while leveraging complementary technological strengths to accelerate satellite constellation deployment. The core advantage of this model lies in resource sharing, which is particularly vital for partners constrained by limited budgets and technological gaps. Through division of labor and complementarity, they can speed up satellite constellation deployment and offset the challenges posed by the relatively short lifespan of low Earth orbit satellites and the risk that relying solely on one country's slow launch pace could cause the entire system to fail. In this sense, cooperation naturally becomes the optimal choice.
However, the ambitious vision may be shattered by reality. When discussing the challenges this project faces, Shao noted that Japan and the EU suffer from several technical shortcomings, including limited launch capacity, a relatively high satellite failure rate, and constrained satellite constellation operation capabilities. On top of that, they face enormous financial pressure. Moreover, the US, whose interests stand to be affected, might obstruct the project, making Washington's stance a key variable that will determine whether this cooperation can proceed smoothly.
Shao further pointed out that joint development of a low Earth orbit satellite constellation faces three major challenges. The first is launch capacity and costs. The Starlink system relies on reusable Falcon 9 rockets to enable frequent, low-cost launches. In contrast, Japan and the EU lack such robust launch capabilities and face higher costs, so mass satellite constellation deployment will significantly increase their financial burden. The second is the maintenance. Starlink satellites have a high attrition rate (about one out of every fifteen satellites must be replaced), so continuous replenishment launches are required to keep the network stable. Japan and the EU will inevitably face the same issue when building their own satellite constellation, posing a major challenge to them. The third is the position of the US. A competing Japan-EU satellite network could threaten Starlink's market dominance, which may prompt Washington to intervene and hinder the project. Thus, the attitude of the US will remain the key variable that could shape the project's fate.
Editor's Note: Originally published on military.cnr.cn, this article is translated from Chinese into English and edited by the China Military Online. The information and opinions in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of eng.chinamil.com.cn.
